Wednesday, August 26, 2009
中日不同 (OLD ARTICLE, 2009-8-17)
(OLD ARTICLE, 2009-8-20) 剛剛的星期一(2009-8-17)美國公佈的數據中，其中最惹人矚目的是中國減持和日本英國增持美國國債一事。有趣的是，當年頭美債的孳息率最低時取代日本作為第一大買家，現在卻在孳息率上升時減倉，而日本則開始增持。撇開政治賬不談，則明顯中國是高買低賣而日本則相反。這樣看來日本似乎商業化得多。另一方面，在中國人民幣緊扣美元的實則政策下，在這場買賣中中國是虧掉了。雖然以百份比來說分別不大，但是由於金額大，絕對的數目也不少(以1萬億美元計，千份之一也有10億美元，千份之5就是50億美元) 。而如果匯率不變，是否意味著會間接” 消滅” 掉一部份的人民幣？
美國的通脹和美元存底國的通縮
這兩天美國拍賣了1個月、3個月、6個月，1年和2年期的國債；折算/孳息率分別是0.120%、0.160%、0.255%，0.460%和1.119%；超額認購比分別是3.62、3.89、3.49，3.44和2.68。總拍賣額至現時為止有1600億美元，尚餘5年和7年期的國債將會在今天和明天拍賣。
按常理說，拍賣國債應該有從市場抽走資金的作用。不過，假設在拍賣中取得的貨就在今天賣出，故事卻又未必如此簡單。現貨國債的報價(以折算/孳息率來報，cf bloomberg) ：3個月的0.160%、6個月的0.25%、1年的0.47%和2年的1.06%。一年期或以內的短債是打和或微蝕；兩年期的孳息率就由1.119%下降到1.060%約49點子的差距，已經有微賺。再看5年期的：上次拍賣時(5星期前) 孳息率是2.689%，現時則報2.46%，已經有229點子的差距。如果再反轉頭看5星期前拍賣的短債：3個月的0.19%，6個月的0.275%，1年的0.47%和2年的1.08%來比，最多是30個點子的回報，基本可以當打平論。如果把2年期的和5年期的相比，完全看不到” 正常” 的孳息曲線的邊際利率遞減。
這個正是量化寬鬆的結果。
美國政府的做法是可以在拍賣後隨即以更高的價格向市場買回，借此變相注資入買家(通常是機構投資者和基金) ，這一點大家都已經知道。但是，由短債本身上落不大長債的上落卻可以做相當的買賣來看，” 以短補長” 來壓止長債孳息狂飆(雖然已經飆了不少) 並” 順便” 泵錢入各基金的口袋中是現時美國一石二鳥的做法。最明顯的代價是美國的債務更上層樓：因為就算不少央行已經泵了手上的美元去買短債，但是美國政府始終還是要擴張其信貸規模才能繼續量化寬鬆。
另有一個不那麼明顯的代價，不過卻是由短債購買者，即主要是各央行，來承擔：把自己的美元存底去支持美國的長債卻又同時增加美國的債務。這對於自身有硬貨幣的國家來說，主要影響的是兌美元匯價的波動。但是對以美元為存底作為其法幣的支柱的國家來說，這等於把它的信貸能力逐漸抽空—因為美國的消費既沒增長，無法賺取美元；更兼美國國債的膨脹會令美匯進一步受壓，使手上的美債資產更進一步貶值。更可怕的是，為了不使自己血本無歸，更要繼續消耗手上減少中的美匯去買美債撐美元，步入惡性循環當中。一旦自身的融資能力越來越弱，則國內發展的項目也會因為資金不足而遭腰斬，更不用說一般企業會在信貸環境重新收緊下陷入困境了。甚至會出現美國通脹時另一國家通縮。
“出來行，遲早要還” — 不過到底是由誰去還，這是一個問題。
按常理說，拍賣國債應該有從市場抽走資金的作用。不過，假設在拍賣中取得的貨就在今天賣出，故事卻又未必如此簡單。現貨國債的報價(以折算/孳息率來報，cf bloomberg) ：3個月的0.160%、6個月的0.25%、1年的0.47%和2年的1.06%。一年期或以內的短債是打和或微蝕；兩年期的孳息率就由1.119%下降到1.060%約49點子的差距，已經有微賺。再看5年期的：上次拍賣時(5星期前) 孳息率是2.689%，現時則報2.46%，已經有229點子的差距。如果再反轉頭看5星期前拍賣的短債：3個月的0.19%，6個月的0.275%，1年的0.47%和2年的1.08%來比，最多是30個點子的回報，基本可以當打平論。如果把2年期的和5年期的相比，完全看不到” 正常” 的孳息曲線的邊際利率遞減。
這個正是量化寬鬆的結果。
美國政府的做法是可以在拍賣後隨即以更高的價格向市場買回，借此變相注資入買家(通常是機構投資者和基金) ，這一點大家都已經知道。但是，由短債本身上落不大長債的上落卻可以做相當的買賣來看，” 以短補長” 來壓止長債孳息狂飆(雖然已經飆了不少) 並” 順便” 泵錢入各基金的口袋中是現時美國一石二鳥的做法。最明顯的代價是美國的債務更上層樓：因為就算不少央行已經泵了手上的美元去買短債，但是美國政府始終還是要擴張其信貸規模才能繼續量化寬鬆。
另有一個不那麼明顯的代價，不過卻是由短債購買者，即主要是各央行，來承擔：把自己的美元存底去支持美國的長債卻又同時增加美國的債務。這對於自身有硬貨幣的國家來說，主要影響的是兌美元匯價的波動。但是對以美元為存底作為其法幣的支柱的國家來說，這等於把它的信貸能力逐漸抽空—因為美國的消費既沒增長，無法賺取美元；更兼美國國債的膨脹會令美匯進一步受壓，使手上的美債資產更進一步貶值。更可怕的是，為了不使自己血本無歸，更要繼續消耗手上減少中的美匯去買美債撐美元，步入惡性循環當中。一旦自身的融資能力越來越弱，則國內發展的項目也會因為資金不足而遭腰斬，更不用說一般企業會在信貸環境重新收緊下陷入困境了。甚至會出現美國通脹時另一國家通縮。
“出來行，遲早要還” — 不過到底是由誰去還，這是一個問題。
Monday, August 24, 2009
樓市"穿屎"
美國上週公佈的7月份現房銷售數字出現23年來最高的單月宗數，也是連續4個月的上升，市場一遍樂觀的情緒並堅信經濟已經全面復甦。與此同時，中國最近幾個月的房產熱也令不少保守的投資者大跌眼鏡：不單止樓價上漲了60%或以上，成交也跟著急升，連賣地價也是不斷打破紀錄。單以筆者住的區域為例：筆者的住宅就由最低的23,000RMB/sqm (2009年3月) 升至34,000RMB/sqm (平均價則由27,000RMB/sqm升至32,000RMB/sqm)。在離筆者的住宅約1公里原本銷售房價也只值約25,000RMB/sqm的地方居然賣地價就已經22,000RMB/sqm。要知道中國的樓發水率才15%左右而已，和香港的起碼30%不可同日而語。這樣的價錢，除非後市極為向好，不然之後無論賬面還是現金流都面對很大的壓力。可是依然有開發商去搶，以這樣看起來，情況好像壞極有限。
可是，”魔鬼總在細字當中” ，如果注意七月份的美國的樓房售價，卻和去年同比跌15%，上月環比也輕微下跌3.9%，比上一季是改善了約8.5%，但是和2008同上季卻依然折了39%。再者，和中國的第一季類同，美國也積壓了剛性需求直至價格合理前景稍定才爆發。分析五月份，六月份和七月份的數據就會發現只要房價一超過180kUSD/house銷售量就會下跌，而這個價錢和去年七月份同比還是折了16%，和2008年的第一季更折了約23%。也就是說，其實現在的買家仍然對價格很敏感。再加上現貨樓的庫存在過去3個月下跌後重新上升，住宅房的後市未容如此樂觀。
另一方面，中國的樓市也要留神。價格固然經升至不合理的高水平：再以筆者的住宅(132sqm)為例，當平均樓價由27,000RMB/sqm升至32,000RMB/sqm之際，租金卻由同時期的12,000RMB/month跌至9,000RMB/month的水平。租值回報居然由4%跌到2.55%。另外一個在2公里外的同級住宅更跌到只有1.9%，比香港的還低。現在在上海首置的按揭息率是3.75%，可以按9成25年，以筆者的住宅計，如果在3月入貨，則月供是11,092.95RMB，比租還便宜，當然值得。可是在上個月入貨的話，月供是13,147.20RMB, 比租貴了46%之多！除非房價能再大幅上升，不然這個差價實在是太大了。此外，現時國內四大行都緊跟中央的政策去為樓市降溫，其中包括減低自住外的第二間樓房的按揭至最多6成，而且審批程序極為繁複，也有不少被拒的個案。這樣一來，待自2008年時積壓的剛性需求一解決，則樓市將會進入一段呆滯的時期。對於過勇的投機者這是一個警號；不過對於一個保守的投資者而言，這或許又是一個機會。
可是，”魔鬼總在細字當中” ，如果注意七月份的美國的樓房售價，卻和去年同比跌15%，上月環比也輕微下跌3.9%，比上一季是改善了約8.5%，但是和2008同上季卻依然折了39%。再者，和中國的第一季類同，美國也積壓了剛性需求直至價格合理前景稍定才爆發。分析五月份，六月份和七月份的數據就會發現只要房價一超過180kUSD/house銷售量就會下跌，而這個價錢和去年七月份同比還是折了16%，和2008年的第一季更折了約23%。也就是說，其實現在的買家仍然對價格很敏感。再加上現貨樓的庫存在過去3個月下跌後重新上升，住宅房的後市未容如此樂觀。
另一方面，中國的樓市也要留神。價格固然經升至不合理的高水平：再以筆者的住宅(132sqm)為例，當平均樓價由27,000RMB/sqm升至32,000RMB/sqm之際，租金卻由同時期的12,000RMB/month跌至9,000RMB/month的水平。租值回報居然由4%跌到2.55%。另外一個在2公里外的同級住宅更跌到只有1.9%，比香港的還低。現在在上海首置的按揭息率是3.75%，可以按9成25年，以筆者的住宅計，如果在3月入貨，則月供是11,092.95RMB，比租還便宜，當然值得。可是在上個月入貨的話，月供是13,147.20RMB, 比租貴了46%之多！除非房價能再大幅上升，不然這個差價實在是太大了。此外，現時國內四大行都緊跟中央的政策去為樓市降溫，其中包括減低自住外的第二間樓房的按揭至最多6成，而且審批程序極為繁複，也有不少被拒的個案。這樣一來，待自2008年時積壓的剛性需求一解決，則樓市將會進入一段呆滯的時期。對於過勇的投機者這是一個警號；不過對於一個保守的投資者而言，這或許又是一個機會。
Thursday, August 13, 2009
老實地虛偽和虛偽地老實
明明各數據指向經濟活動將在一個比2004-2007那段瘋狂日子低的水平穩定下來，明明知道房貸息率息差和企業貸款息差高企，失業率在政府大力干預下的所謂“穩定”只是改善0.1%，市民入息短期內不會改善，物流速率下降，庫存量低企，政府開支增大，以及原材料和原油價格因美元信用下降抬高等事實，聯儲局仍玩弄媒介手法，刻意把“聯儲局認為最惡劣時刻已經過去” 和“聯儲局延長量化寬鬆措施一個月（即是‘熬底’）” 兩個消息一起發放，造成“聯儲局認為最惡劣時刻已經過去，‘所以’將會‘逐步’退出市場” 這種“樂觀”的解讀和經濟V形復甦的假象，企圖”再槓桿化”去對抗”去槓桿化” ，赤裸裸的希望消費者再度不惜一切去借錢消費，這是” 老實地虛偽” 。
正當各國盡力” 粉飾太平” 之際，英國卻很” 老實地” 交待經濟衰退比想象中嚴重，並認為經濟就算開始復甦步伐仍然緩慢，而且指出失業率在可預見的未來上升。可是，正以為英國會在這基礎上提出甚麼新內容，尤其對金融界重新訂規則時，被訪者的話鋒卻指出” 近來的英國住房市場和消費信心等數據出現令人鼓舞的現象，經濟刺激措施也在發揮作用” 。原來不過是政客在做期望管理，正是” 虛偽地老實” 。
這與去年的情況何期相同！
最初美資大行在情況出現時不是拒絕承認問題就是指出問題不大—” 老實地虛偽” —直至某英資大行先行自我引爆(卻沒有真正完整地交待有多大的問題，也同樣說問題已受控制) 做期望管理—” 虛偽地老實” —爾後再拖沓半年，雙方都抵賴不過時，才引發金融危機。
歷史不一定重複，現今情況也和當時不盡相同。可是，以史作鏡，可以知興亡。投資者在剝開政客和財演的粉飾之詞後方宜下判斷。
正當各國盡力” 粉飾太平” 之際，英國卻很” 老實地” 交待經濟衰退比想象中嚴重，並認為經濟就算開始復甦步伐仍然緩慢，而且指出失業率在可預見的未來上升。可是，正以為英國會在這基礎上提出甚麼新內容，尤其對金融界重新訂規則時，被訪者的話鋒卻指出” 近來的英國住房市場和消費信心等數據出現令人鼓舞的現象，經濟刺激措施也在發揮作用” 。原來不過是政客在做期望管理，正是” 虛偽地老實” 。
這與去年的情況何期相同！
最初美資大行在情況出現時不是拒絕承認問題就是指出問題不大—” 老實地虛偽” —直至某英資大行先行自我引爆(卻沒有真正完整地交待有多大的問題，也同樣說問題已受控制) 做期望管理—” 虛偽地老實” —爾後再拖沓半年，雙方都抵賴不過時，才引發金融危機。
歷史不一定重複，現今情況也和當時不盡相同。可是，以史作鏡，可以知興亡。投資者在剝開政客和財演的粉飾之詞後方宜下判斷。
Devil in the Details and Gold...
FED fund rate on Wednesday was 0.13%, down 0.02% from Tuesday.
5 different maturity treasuries were auctioned up to Wednesday: 4-week, 3-month, 6-month, 3-year and 10-year. The pattern is still similar: T-bill maintains a bid/cover ratio above 3, whereas the T-note maintains a bid/cover ratio between 2-3 (3.41; 3.55; 3.49; 2.89 and 2.49 respectively at ascending length of maturity). Despite the seemingly lowered bid/cover ratio and the increasing yield, the money amount of T-bills and T-notes per each type was higher than last auction, say, 4-week at 4billion USD more; 3-month and 3-year each at 2billion USD more, and 10-year at 4billion USD more. The actual influence on bond market due to "recovery" notion cannot be simply decoupled from the "demand and supply" behavior. In general, the primary bond market does not experience a dead drop at the surge on stock market - possibly also a response to the extension of QE by FED, in addition to the conservative risk appetite.
The extension of QE for another month till October by FED, by speculation, can possibly be FED's reaction to the already pipelined short position for the coming September. The announcement about its re-adjusted economic foresight is another. However, given the so-called confidence, FED has still not dared to cease the QE as scheduled. It is more a signal of anxiety, or at least uncertainty, to the overall USA asset market.
Had the QE ceased, there could be two scenarios. The first one is that the market follows FED "optimisstic" expectation and pools money into equity, commodity and property market under the notion of recovery. Yet it will damage the bond market and further drive the yield rate up. It also means a financial burden on the USA government in the longer term: afterall its fiscal deficit will also run high to cope with higher interest payment. The flow of hot money, the collapse of fixed-income market, and the expansion of USA government balance sheet, points all but one word: inflation.
Another possible scenario is that due to the cease of QE (and hence lack of "easy-money"), the market loses the upward momentum and flats out or even drops to a certain level. Hot money will either leave USA equity market if they can find a replacement elsewhere or simply seek shelter on risk-protected asset. Although bond may seem to be a good choice, the cease of QE, a signal that FED will lower its profile on the money market, can also trigger the lost of confidence on USD. In turn, it will propagate to the bond market and also drive bond yield high. The asset depreciation and the weakening of USD will couple with each other and form a vicious cycle till a new lower equilibrium point. Deflation on asset and weak USD will result.
While each scenario starts from different causes and leads to two different results, one thing is common: the weakening of USD. Such weakening may mean a temporary surge on other currencies, be it EUR, GBP, AUD, etc. However, it is also apparent that such action will further dry up the potential recovery in those areas. No government can simply tolerate it longer, and corrective actions will be taken.
Under such circumstances, one of the major remaining options is apparent: gold. Perhaps it is the moment to pay more attention on it.
5 different maturity treasuries were auctioned up to Wednesday: 4-week, 3-month, 6-month, 3-year and 10-year. The pattern is still similar: T-bill maintains a bid/cover ratio above 3, whereas the T-note maintains a bid/cover ratio between 2-3 (3.41; 3.55; 3.49; 2.89 and 2.49 respectively at ascending length of maturity). Despite the seemingly lowered bid/cover ratio and the increasing yield, the money amount of T-bills and T-notes per each type was higher than last auction, say, 4-week at 4billion USD more; 3-month and 3-year each at 2billion USD more, and 10-year at 4billion USD more. The actual influence on bond market due to "recovery" notion cannot be simply decoupled from the "demand and supply" behavior. In general, the primary bond market does not experience a dead drop at the surge on stock market - possibly also a response to the extension of QE by FED, in addition to the conservative risk appetite.
The extension of QE for another month till October by FED, by speculation, can possibly be FED's reaction to the already pipelined short position for the coming September. The announcement about its re-adjusted economic foresight is another. However, given the so-called confidence, FED has still not dared to cease the QE as scheduled. It is more a signal of anxiety, or at least uncertainty, to the overall USA asset market.
Had the QE ceased, there could be two scenarios. The first one is that the market follows FED "optimisstic" expectation and pools money into equity, commodity and property market under the notion of recovery. Yet it will damage the bond market and further drive the yield rate up. It also means a financial burden on the USA government in the longer term: afterall its fiscal deficit will also run high to cope with higher interest payment. The flow of hot money, the collapse of fixed-income market, and the expansion of USA government balance sheet, points all but one word: inflation.
Another possible scenario is that due to the cease of QE (and hence lack of "easy-money"), the market loses the upward momentum and flats out or even drops to a certain level. Hot money will either leave USA equity market if they can find a replacement elsewhere or simply seek shelter on risk-protected asset. Although bond may seem to be a good choice, the cease of QE, a signal that FED will lower its profile on the money market, can also trigger the lost of confidence on USD. In turn, it will propagate to the bond market and also drive bond yield high. The asset depreciation and the weakening of USD will couple with each other and form a vicious cycle till a new lower equilibrium point. Deflation on asset and weak USD will result.
While each scenario starts from different causes and leads to two different results, one thing is common: the weakening of USD. Such weakening may mean a temporary surge on other currencies, be it EUR, GBP, AUD, etc. However, it is also apparent that such action will further dry up the potential recovery in those areas. No government can simply tolerate it longer, and corrective actions will be taken.
Under such circumstances, one of the major remaining options is apparent: gold. Perhaps it is the moment to pay more attention on it.
Cold Water...
was found on the details: from the figure of whole-sale trade the de-stocking is still done at the speed greater than re-stocking. Also, while the productivity has improved (a good news), the labour cost is lowered. Directly quoted from bloomberg: "The jump in productivity and drop in unit labor costs were due to hours worked falling much faster than output. Hours worked plunged an annualized 7.6 percent while output edged down 1.7 percent", it is apparent that from the enterprises point of view, they are happy to cut labour cost (by cutting headcount, working hours, lowering wages, or combinations of the above) and for sure will not change readily unless the long-term sales forecast looks more optimisstic.
Another interesting thing to note is that option traders start to bet on the loss of momentum of the rally on S&P500 by September.
At the other end of the Pacific, China's figures, though optimisstic at a glance, did show conflicts. While import, export, trade surplus, CPI and PPI dropped, the PMI and power consumption have greatly increased. While the former ones mean the weakening of economic activities, including domestic (from import and PPI and partially CPI), the latter one suggest an expansion on the activities. Despite the fact that most experts believe in the power consumption figure as a metric stick; nevertheless, coupling with the government spending on you-never-know-go-where-for-what items and on pushing-the-peasants-to-afford-appliances-they-don't-need programs, the actual increase due to "natural" economic reasons is only a minor part of the whole pie.
Now, if China, in order to prevent the potential partial inflation, it may apply measures to cool down both the property market and stock market. The former one is already slowed down or even plateau. The latter one, after the big wave of IPO, will also contract. Therefore, the China investment market may experience some adjustments.
Meanwhile, it may not completely mean nightmare to HK yet. The investment immigration from China, plus other channels, have helped the transfer of RMB asset from China to HK which has further transformed to a substantial force on the HK stock market. Overseas investors and funds will also view it a great opportunity to pick money from their pockets. Ups and downs will be expected, till the point that no more eye-catching IPOs and the immigration wave is seasonally readjusted. By that time the true colors will be shown.
Another interesting thing to note is that option traders start to bet on the loss of momentum of the rally on S&P500 by September.
At the other end of the Pacific, China's figures, though optimisstic at a glance, did show conflicts. While import, export, trade surplus, CPI and PPI dropped, the PMI and power consumption have greatly increased. While the former ones mean the weakening of economic activities, including domestic (from import and PPI and partially CPI), the latter one suggest an expansion on the activities. Despite the fact that most experts believe in the power consumption figure as a metric stick; nevertheless, coupling with the government spending on you-never-know-go-where-for-what items and on pushing-the-peasants-to-afford-appliances-they-don't-need programs, the actual increase due to "natural" economic reasons is only a minor part of the whole pie.
Now, if China, in order to prevent the potential partial inflation, it may apply measures to cool down both the property market and stock market. The former one is already slowed down or even plateau. The latter one, after the big wave of IPO, will also contract. Therefore, the China investment market may experience some adjustments.
Meanwhile, it may not completely mean nightmare to HK yet. The investment immigration from China, plus other channels, have helped the transfer of RMB asset from China to HK which has further transformed to a substantial force on the HK stock market. Overseas investors and funds will also view it a great opportunity to pick money from their pockets. Ups and downs will be expected, till the point that no more eye-catching IPOs and the immigration wave is seasonally readjusted. By that time the true colors will be shown.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
注意和推測
美國本週至週三止拍賣了總值約九百三十億美元的1個月期，3個月期和6個月期的國庫債券，反應理想，超額認購率分別為3.77 (孳息=0.145%)，3.87 (孳息=0.18%) 和 3.28 (孳息=0.275%)，比上星期的 3.54 (孳息=0.13%), 3.40 (孳息=0.190%) 和 3.87 (孳息=0.275%)變化不大，卻比上月股市剛發力最後暴升時加強不少，顯示市場已經漸漸由當初的狂熱轉為謹慎，避險的意識增強。
與此同時，美國聯邦基金利率亦在最近兩週在0.19-0.25%之間上落。對照聯儲局於上兩週的資產負債表中顯示大幅減少負債(即信貸擴張) 至11億(前週) 和1億(上週) ，廣義貨幣M2的供應量在前週只有89億(還未計算先前兩星期曾經收縮超過150億) ，聯儲局似乎在信貸供應上已經放軟手腳。理由亦明顯：在股市狂升到頂時，通脹預期似又再被高唱，連累美元再跌，兌歐羅跌到0.6939，兌英鎊跌到0.5894，兌澳幣跌到1.1875。另外，熱炒的溢出效應也影響金價開始發力，黃金價格則曾經逼近970後才回落。在這種情況下，聯儲局如果再放任供應，自然會影響到美債買家，並因此減弱美國政府的籌錢能力。再加上業績公佈期快過，經濟數據又是好壞參半，所以美國政府有微調貨幣供應量以免資金大量流走的必要。
投資者更宜留意下星期美國將不單止拍賣1個月、3個月和6國月的國庫債券，還將拍賣3年期，10年期和30年期的長債。其中10年期和30年期的長債一向被視為美國通脹和美元長期的信任度的指標。在現時美元已經跌到七個一皮之際，美國政府恐怕未必夠”吉士” 繼續狂印。
與之相連的是人民幣的擴張程度：美元兌人民幣雖然在穩定的範圍內，但是國家似乎有寧可讓人民幣的價格再下降一點之勢：由3個月前的6.829至現在的6.84170。可是和美國兌其他貨幣的下跌率相比仍是微不足道。因此一旦美元重拾點升勢，為免人民幣貶得太低而遭各國指摘，再加上懼怕由資產價格的通脹演變成消費性通脹，中央也須收緊信貸一點，這勢必今到資產價格調整。
最後，別忘了由宣佈救市至今已有八九個月的時間，再多個兩三個月就差不多一年，意味著各基建工程的前期準備工作接近完成階段，招標或在第四季或在下年第一季發生，工程則差不多應該在下年下半年開工。換句話說，短期救市措施也將到尾聲，為免和工程競爭資金，再加上暫時進一步的信貸危機被壓著，兩國政府會慢慢放軟短期資金的供應並企圖轉入較長期及較能提供職位的項目上，這意味著貨幣價格亦會較穩定。因此，熱炒貨幣價格波幅影響的投資者宜準備轉倉至和貨幣價格穩定有關的項目上。股市也會在調整(如果有大煲野則可能大跌—兩國的子彈已經越來越不見使) 後個別向政策發展。
與此同時，美國聯邦基金利率亦在最近兩週在0.19-0.25%之間上落。對照聯儲局於上兩週的資產負債表中顯示大幅減少負債(即信貸擴張) 至11億(前週) 和1億(上週) ，廣義貨幣M2的供應量在前週只有89億(還未計算先前兩星期曾經收縮超過150億) ，聯儲局似乎在信貸供應上已經放軟手腳。理由亦明顯：在股市狂升到頂時，通脹預期似又再被高唱，連累美元再跌，兌歐羅跌到0.6939，兌英鎊跌到0.5894，兌澳幣跌到1.1875。另外，熱炒的溢出效應也影響金價開始發力，黃金價格則曾經逼近970後才回落。在這種情況下，聯儲局如果再放任供應，自然會影響到美債買家，並因此減弱美國政府的籌錢能力。再加上業績公佈期快過，經濟數據又是好壞參半，所以美國政府有微調貨幣供應量以免資金大量流走的必要。
投資者更宜留意下星期美國將不單止拍賣1個月、3個月和6國月的國庫債券，還將拍賣3年期，10年期和30年期的長債。其中10年期和30年期的長債一向被視為美國通脹和美元長期的信任度的指標。在現時美元已經跌到七個一皮之際，美國政府恐怕未必夠”吉士” 繼續狂印。
與之相連的是人民幣的擴張程度：美元兌人民幣雖然在穩定的範圍內，但是國家似乎有寧可讓人民幣的價格再下降一點之勢：由3個月前的6.829至現在的6.84170。可是和美國兌其他貨幣的下跌率相比仍是微不足道。因此一旦美元重拾點升勢，為免人民幣貶得太低而遭各國指摘，再加上懼怕由資產價格的通脹演變成消費性通脹，中央也須收緊信貸一點，這勢必今到資產價格調整。
最後，別忘了由宣佈救市至今已有八九個月的時間，再多個兩三個月就差不多一年，意味著各基建工程的前期準備工作接近完成階段，招標或在第四季或在下年第一季發生，工程則差不多應該在下年下半年開工。換句話說，短期救市措施也將到尾聲，為免和工程競爭資金，再加上暫時進一步的信貸危機被壓著，兩國政府會慢慢放軟短期資金的供應並企圖轉入較長期及較能提供職位的項目上，這意味著貨幣價格亦會較穩定。因此，熱炒貨幣價格波幅影響的投資者宜準備轉倉至和貨幣價格穩定有關的項目上。股市也會在調整(如果有大煲野則可能大跌—兩國的子彈已經越來越不見使) 後個別向政策發展。
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