近況估計

各位巴打絲絲打：早晨！

美元對各國貨幣下跌，與其說美元的末日，倒不如說是其他貨幣的末日未到。

有興趣的話可以看看英國，德國和日本的長債孳息的變化，以及它們和LIBOR的息差，會發覺其實其他貨幣的定息回報工具不比美債受歡迎。再加上它們的經濟好不了那裡去，可投資項目缺缺，對那些貨幣基本需求不足。待游資回流後，其他貨幣就會轉弱。

黃金亦然：除了惡性通脹能令它有變相的利息外，黃金並無衍生收入/價值。在扭曲的基準利率下，資金被趕入市場利用消息炒作，短期黃金的上漲空間在這裡。但是，在經濟衰弱，各各國依然要倚靠信貸再膨脹去刺激經濟下，又絕不願意其貨幣受黃金的威脅而有所動作；這是短期上漲的極限。又因為印銀紙始終為惡性通脹埋下伏筆，因此短期被沽的底線應在200天/250天MA。

如前作所述，經濟基礎並無改善：庫存減少是因為割價銷售；訂單回升乃因恐慌後正常存倉(但留意庫存總數卻減少，亦同時導致庫存-清倉週期縮短—直至銷售再下跌) ；出入口總值持續減少，商業貸款和樓按息率息差不單止沒有減少反而有輕微上升；消費者信貸在收縮和收業及就業不足率均在惡化等等都在浮現。當然，在4-5月因為熱錢借消息炒作令到這些因素被”好” 消息蓋過。不過，6月又到半年結的時期，各零售商減價促銷的結果當會在中期報告反映出來。此外，從好友在5月頭一個星期大屠殺淡友至今已有3週，淡友死得七七八八，變相好友都找不到對家，再加上可炒的消息已翻炒到爛，所以已經陸續賺錢離場。相信各大戶亦根據手頭上的數據和消息重新部署。6-8月將會是有趣的日子：特別是新的國家基建的初步規畫亦應該差不多可以出籠，屆時又多一個元素影響短期走勢也。

Some Headings from Shanghai Daily yesterday - and US banks...

When I took my flight from Hong Kong to Shanghai yesterday, I found some headlines on Shanghai daily quite interesting.

Examples like Shanghai ship hub requires more financial facilities for survival and competition against Singapore during this ice age and steel industries had a total capacity of 660million tonnes with 160million tonnes extra than 2008 total actual output (which also includes the inventory at the dealers). They are very much related to the upper and middle stream of the supply chain, and can usually reflect the future sales on retail - the very end of the supply chain.

From the current status, nothing particularly exciting has released.

Over-capacity has been putting a heavy burden not only on the producers but also on the banks/financial institutions that are supporting them. It can drain the blood of the bank. It also means the money printing measures cannot reach the target.

Yet afterall, funds, banks, and financial institutions still need to make profit for their own bread and butter. They will be more eagered to pick money from others' pockets. This is the recent rebound and the aftermath.

3 banks in US, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, are rumored to return a total of 25billion of the TARP. It seems like after eliminating their rivals, like the late Bear Stern and Merril Lynch, and the still existing BOA, Citi, AE, Furgo, etc, these 3 started to feel secure on their leadership and now tested water.

In case they really started the action, it will grant them some branding advantages and can further rob the customers away from their competitors. The other banks may in turn suffer from further clients withdrawal and brain drain.

If the action does not take place, it will not damage too much on those 3 banks - afterall, it is only a rumor.

The US government's aim is also a crucial factor. It will target on restructuring the banking industry, and it will need good "students" to follow. These 3 banks, after survival, may become "good models" to the other banks, assuming they accept (or even participate on the making of) the new codes and regulations on banking.

Consequently US banking industry may stablize for a while - provided that black swans will not fly out from property market again. Which possibly will.

China: Bad News; Good News

Lets have the bad news first: the Whipper’s Effect of the financial tsunami arrives China.

According to May 16, 2009 issue of Shanghai Daily, the following headlines are noteworthy:

1. Sharp Decline in Premium Growth
A total amount of USD61billion in premiums were collected between January and April, a rise of 9 percent year on year. Nevertheless, the growth rate was a dramatic fall from the year-on-year surge of 49.8 percent in the first four months last year. The above news is released by China Insurance Regulatory Commission. Amidst such fall, risk control and stress tests are still the current focus of the insurance industry, instead of enhancing growth.

2. Banks Urged Not to Focus on ‘Blind’ Buildup
Despite the current difficult situation, China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in the Lujiazui Forum 2009, that banks should not simply blindly build up its loan facilities disregard to the risk control. Big does not mean safe. Although it also emphasizes ‘small is beautiful’, the essence is still on ‘risk control’. Also, so far China has already extended a combined 5.17trillion RMB in new RMB-denominated loans in the first four months of the year, far exceeding the original amount for the entire year (at 4trillion RMB). Despite such efforts, the improvement is mainly reflected on the rebounding stock and property market - and limited to certain segments only. On the other hand, companies are still hard to get loan.

3. China’s FDI Declines by the Most in Months
Foreign Direct Investment has slumped 22.5% to USD5.89billion last month from a year earlier, compared with a 9.5% decline in March and a 15.8% drop in February, the ministry of commerce said yesterday in Beijing. Foreign spending fell 21 percent to USD27.67 billion, as the high base in the same month last year when a significant amount of money reportedly flowed into the market, seeking to profit from the appreciation of the RMB. Also for the same period, 6,241 foreign companies registered in China, declining 34.2% from a year earlier. In April, the country recorded a 33.6% drop in new registration by foreign firms to 1,687. China began losing its competitive edge to attract FDI with its climbing labour costs, the appreciation of the RMB and higher corporate income tax (25%).

These 3 news share the same essence: the source of money, the fuel of economy. Insurance companies, banks, and FDI are 3 important intermediates to distribute fuel to the economy, particularly China has been used to FDI to fuel not only money growth but also paradigm transfer. Now, it is weakening. The SOB (State-Owned-Bank) has been another tool for the central government to implement its microscopic controls. Now it is also weakening - or strengthening in the "wrong" direction, i.e. stock and property market. Insurance company is not as important as the source of capital as the other two but it provides services for risk control. Now it is not weakening but weakened - a reflection of the decline of business activities. The 3 goddesses of destiny: climbing labour cost, appreciation of RMB, and high corporate tax will further seal the fate of business activities of China, although fortunately they are still at some distance away in spite of their fast-running chariots.

Ok, enough bad news, lets have an neutral one:

1. WGC Eyes Launch of Gold ETF Trading + Yellow (Gold) Hue to Take up 3% of Foreign Reserves
The chairman of the China Gold Association and president of China National Gold Group Corp answered my previous question about the rather sudden increase of 454 tonnes of Gold in China’s gold reserve that was not reflected on the World Gold Council Balance on March. It is done by domestic purchases and the refining of scrap gold. Yet China is still looking for a boost of gold’s partition from the current 2% of foreign reserves to 3%. Combining with the news that WGC is working on the launches of Gold ETF in China mainland, gold price will be affected by one more important factor – the lust of gold by mainland Chinese.

The good side is: huge demand on gold from China; the bad side is: sufficient supply by China domestically. Result is still unknown - at least, gold price has never really fluctuated due to the 454 tonnes of increase in China's gold reserve. Another factor worths notice: unlike iron, copper, aluminimum, and other similar commodities, gold will be owned but not really "consumed". Owners of gold, central banks, ETFs, investors and jewellaries owners, quantity wise will never experience "depletion". The lust will cause over-supply, and after the hyper-inflation period (if any), gold will enter another secular bear market. It is fine to purchase at every adjustment - but remember to sell at every peak or at least decrease the portion, and wait for another opportunity to buy.

Time for some good news:

1. Despite my suspects on the survival of electric car industry, it is apparent that China government has been deterministic on its development. Staring from next year to the end of 2011, the municipal government plans to offer up to a 20% one-time subsidy to people who buy new-technology vehicles that save 15% or more on fuel compared with conventionally powered cars and trucks. They will also get a break on some road taxes, with easier registration and an increase in battery-charing infrastructure. Maximum compensation for a passenger car will be 20,000 yuan and the limit for commercial vehicles will be 400,000yuan. Gas-electric hybrid cars now can cost more than 250,000yuan. By 2011, Shanghai aims for new-energy vehicles to account for 5 percent of its total vehicle output, with an industrial scale of 10billion yuan and a fleet of more than 10,000vehicles in trial operation. Another 3 billion yuan will be allocated within 3 years to invest in programs for the industrialization of these vehicles.

2. Another developing sector is the bio-medical sector which also receives policy supports.

So, pay attention beyond the electric car providers: infrastructure providers, part providers, and related service providers will be target. I will dig deeper and share my observations in another article.


In the global scale, economy is still bad. Eurozone GDP shrinks by 2.5%. Temasek offloads its BOA shares. Panasonic suffers 7-year hitch: sales were down 14.4% to 7.77trillion yen, and operating profit tumbled 86% to 72.9billion yen. It still forecasts a net loss of 195billion yen on sales of 7trillion yen for the 12 months through march 2010. US video game sales hurt by lack of hits.


In conclusion, one can discover that the global slowdown of economy starts to hit China and despite a growth of 6-7% in the Q1 of 2009, the actual pacing is nothing optimistic. Considering the unemployment issue has just started, China’s overall outlook may not be as good as many people have projected. Nevertheless, China’s policy can help boosting certain specific industries, environmental related technology is one, bio-medical industry is another, plus all the infrastructures required to support these industries. While most speculators/investors have already made propaganda on the above industries, the supporting infrastructures, which are more crucial and demanded to start beyond the mass production of the above technologies, are still currently comparatively low-profile. Attention should be paid to them for better risk-adjusted return.

無題

眾位巴打絲絲打，唔好意思，昨晚極為疲勞，寫唔到幾句就瞓著；冇法子，幫公司度水和度橋搞到好累！生意難做也！



竹本兄，小弟個D都係吹水野，而且投資呢家野冇所謂實學—一如羅兄所講，比賭博更賭博。至於天地線乎—“煙他呢”囉，小弟個寬帶都好似仲係普通到唔恨個種。經常有度秒如年的感覺，一笑。不過，夠睇bloomberg和BDI基本上ok。再加上查到yahoo finance, HKEX, 以及World Gold Council和一個專報貨幣和商品期貨和期權的免費站，都冇乜好抱怨。



現在相信大戶走了一部份的貨，同時有部份唔係幾好睇但其實是預期之內(如果冇被之前的碧海潮生曲迷惑的話) 的數據出左：庫存和PPI(不計農產品)少許改善但零售數據，失業數據和出入口數據(不計農產品) 都比他們的” 預測” 壞，但是一眾大行和官員選擇性地唱好，以及淡友要重新部署，所以會有所謂” 好淡爭持” 的局面：好淡雙方各做準備。其中要特別留意的是如果銀行的按揭息率和商業貸款息率(大可以到各大銀行或銀行工會的網址找找) 冇乜改善，BDI和失業率依然係咁上下，則越多基金和大戶唱好，尤其是連原本睇淡的都唱好之時，各位請小心—好有可能係轉勢，不過好不幸的唔係向著牛的方向走！而且到時一face off，很可能發覺台前谷緊好倉的原來幕後做緊淡倉！到時”借D以” 返轉頭，咁就唔知係乜野世界—當然，還有一個小心：一個可以打茅波的政府也。



竹本兄提起美元：看看短債的” 受觀迎程度” ，再看看和去年同比美元的M2供應實無不尋常的增加，當可發覺長期來說或許不好(但是兩三年後話唔定又有改變世界的產品，who knows?) ，短期作為其中一個避難所的角式卻依然不改：所以好又好唔到好勁，但係偏偏又死唔去，而且間唔中可能仲搵下歐羅英鎊打兩鎚，甚至連黃金和石油都可能中招。作為比較高息的商品貨幣澳幣，以及低息又死唔去欠債唔使玩仲間唔中發下威的美元及同等低息經濟死左九成九九但係又鬼咁多儲備的日元，再加上偉大祖國的流通與唔流通之間的人仔，其關係都幾過癮吓。

HSBC - Time to Unload a Bit

For HSBC, brother speakman, it is very likely that before HKD84 GS will have already sold their holdings and changed positions before announcement. Besides, another factor to keep in mind is that now it will be the time for Eric Knight to start to cash out his consulting fee, particularly if HSBC can rise over 70. This is a promise for his consulting work: to increase the "shareholder's value". Another interesting fact is that GS is also one of the "banker's bank" of HSBC. Bear all this in mind, when the share price really rises over 70, take your chance to unload the shares and buy some put warrants as a partial hedge. Considering the put will drop a lot before, the price-to-performance ratio should be quite sound.

Trading Momentum Weakening

After last week trading, many short call traders have already lost a substantial pile of money, and long put traders have also had their capital tided up. In addition, governments, China or USA, have been boosting the economic performance by manipulating the interpretation of their figures and exaggerating the effect of their policies. Banks and zombie corporates, cooperating mutually, have announced turn-around on their Q1 performances. Analysts, while "surprised" by "improving figures", covered up their inaccurate estimation by echoing "recovery is coming". All these efforts together will hinder the short sellers's actions.

Nevertheless, without increasing short call and long put, their opposite parties will also lose fuel to further the recent growth. Besides, technically speaking the rebound has reached around 2/3 of the bottom level, so perhaps it is also time for them to cash out and wait for the next opportunity.

This week we will have announcements about inventory levels, PPI and CPI. Inventory levels and PPI may be "good news" as inventory level is lowering and PPI may been steady or even have picked up, from observation on China's equivalent period of PMI as well as petroleum prices. CPI may reduce and form a source of "bad news" although analysts can claim the risk of inflation will also be eased.

Under such circumstances, stock markets transactions may contract in this week and even next week. The futures and options clearing will take place 2 weeks later. Thus, next week and the week after will be crucial had short traders attempted to win something back, or most likely, will not take such actions but look for a rebuilt on next month. Hence, most likely market will maintain high but upward speed may slow down.

The money diffusion from stock markets to other markets due to the influx of new hot money will take effects. In this month Gold and Treasuries will become rivals on competing for hot money as the "risks" on stock markets have gone virtually smaller. As economic situation may relax in this week, another influx of money may not be necessary. Hence, the risk of inflation may not be as substantial and put a pressure on Gold prices. Treasuries will benefit from it, particularly on short-term ones. Yet, if we buy the ideas that the economy has not really bottomed, and further money-printing measures are still required, and short traders will be back, it will be a good moment to purchase gold whenever the price is lower than 900USD. Of course, 850 will even be greater as it provides more rooms of rising.

Judging from the BDI, the commodity prices should have reached the recent peak and will drop again. As economic activities have not really recovered, and production facilities are over-capacity, commodity prices do not have rigid and firm supports. Once the futures contracts bought a year/half a year ago are all exercised, the drop on volume of transaction will be significant. On the other hand, both the ease of inflation and the drop of commodity prices may give reasons for USD to rally.

經濟和股市

小小看法：
1. 別把一些理論看得太死。經濟理論中，小弟個人非常有限的學識和意見，真正最實在的，就是供求關係，機會成本，利率-匯率-通脹率的三角關係，銀行的倍數效應，工資的黏稠性和搏奕論的心態。這些都是建基於人的行為上，而不是其衍生物。
2. 石油的價格最終由供求關係決定。明細請閱讀畢老林先生5月7日的文章。小弟多加一句：以最近貿易和航運之弱，只能補倉而不能炒賣。各航運公司單是要覆行一年前訂立的期油合同已經可以形成補倉潮。但是消耗不了的油該怎麼辦？
3. 聯儲局的確增加了美元的供應，可是如果你上美國聯儲局，財政部或彭博的網站查考一下你會發覺M2的實際在市場上累積的金額不見得比去年同期增加了多少。也就是說，錢到了銀行，存貸機構，和喪屍公司之後，沒有再流到市場上，也就沒有足夠的乘數效應。
4. 另一方面，零售業在減少庫存以改善資金流動性下減價促銷，對企業本身的流動性得到緩衝，但是在毛利率上引發下降，勢必令企業有壓力減低固定支出：即人工，租金，固定資產開發，財務支出和稅務支出。
5. 減少租金和固定資產開發就等於減少銷售點，這樣會對商業物業的價格下降，也令物業開發和管理經營困難。
6. 減少財務支出就等於令銀行生意減少。
7. 於是，不少打工仔的薪水會減少，或者失業，做成購買力下降，和減價促銷合在一起，這就叫賤物鬥窮人，即是通縮。
8. 孳息曲線是動態而不是靜態的。現在的曲線只反映現在的人對將來的期望。你有興趣可以看看2008年8月內曲線的變化，堪稱神奇，由Nike眉到山坡到倒轉再變回Nike眉。現在形勢絕非如貝南奇所說般穩定，而是” 脆弱的均衡” 。
9. 長期國債雖然弱，但是短期國債仍處於高位，競投的指數均在2.5以上，顯示需求強勁，企業投資級及垃圾級債券的孳息率卻在下跌，何言債券市場崩潰？
10. LIBOR雖然下降，但是30年定息房貸率卻回升至破5，短期浮息房貸亦然。另外存款證的息率亦上升，顯示銀行為應付考試靜靜雞收緊水喉。縱使這是短期的措施，亦足以證明銀行的虛弱。銀行的虛弱，消費力的虛弱，和物業市場的實則虛弱，又如何撐起倍數效應？
11. 各大原材料公司和其下游企業均利用信貸和資本市場過度擴充以致現在的廠房運用率偏低，這對原材料的需求和信貸機構均構成壓力。雖然原材料的供應減少可以令到其價格不會不斷下跌，然則其上漲難以久持。
12. 唯一真正利好的因素在於政府投資和改變規則。但是前者的乘數效應不張(詳見練乙錚先生的文章) ，後者則基本上是打茅波：利用信息不對稱以改變消費者和投資者的” 觀感” ，期望他們重新揮霍。但是，這可能嗎？
13. 股市上落，特別在現時這一陣，是基於資金流和消息炒作，和經濟真正表現沒多大的關係。

The Day After 17000

The rise is technically confirmed. I will not be surprised if HSI surged to 17,000, or even to 18,000. In fact, Mr. Kan's prediction of "over 21,000" under the existing rise can even be achieved (imagine each day rises by 800pts; only takes 6 trading days to cover 4800pts).

Yet, what will happen after the rise? Please pay attention to the followings:

1. Interestingly, when the stock market was at the down side and economy was declining, analysis like "stock market led economy by half a year" circulated everywhere.
2. But according to the recent movement, investors, in general, reacted upon the GDP consumer spending, ISM mfg, PMI, and pending home sales, that were all economic figures of March or April at the very best.
3. The Mortgage Rate in fact increased. 30 Year Fixed was 4.94%, a recent high for 3 months. The others are the same.
4. The layoffs on various corporates, including commercial banks, continue. It include not only investment banking departments but also commercial banking, private banking, and wealth management.
5. The TED maintains at the level as last week and last month at 82 basis points spread.
6. BDI maintains at 1400-1800 level after the rebound from 8xx to 2xxx.
7. While the HSI futures options have shown influx to 17000, 17200, and 18000 call; another influx to 14400, 13600, and 12000 put are also shown.
8. The selling of stockpiled inventory at low cost will be reflected on Q2.
9. FED injection of fund has recorded a negative figure for 2 weeks ago.

Economy cannot decide how the stocks will be speculated but it can decide how much money people can spend and bet on eventually. Money influx is the key of this rebound. No influx, no rise.

再加上內地市場和港股…

除了看美國的數據以外，再看看內地的情況。

房地產市場出現了所謂的小陽春，2009年3月各大城市的成交數量都達到新高：

• 北京3.41m sqm (2006-2008 單月最高 2.57m sqm)
• 上海3.28m sqm (2006-2008 單月最高 4.68m sqm)
• 廣州1.61m sqm (2006-2008 單月最高 1.71m sqm)
• 深圳2.38m sqm (2006-2008 單月最高 1.70m sqm)

但是同時地，"根据国家发展改革委、国家统计局调查显示，3月份，全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比下降1.3%，降幅比1月扩大0.1个百分点；环比上涨0.2%。" 也就是說，最近的房價上漲的幅度(環比)遠比其與上年下降幅度(同比)為弱，現時的房價與以前相比實屬便宜，始出現現時的"搶購"情況。可是，在現時的"搶購"情況下房價卻依然無法真正升高至去年同期的水平，證明低價格以減少庫存是小陽春的主要成因。

說到庫存，且看看下列數據 "主要城市住宅存量消化需時(月)：

• 北京：最短12個月，最長25個月
• 上海：最短4個月，最長7個月
• 廣州：最短7個月，最長9個月
• 深圳：最短8個月，最長9個月

雖然這是以目前的速度計算，也需要相當時間才消化完。而現時的速度更多是一種短暫的現象。

與此同時，中國的PMI如果細看如下：

• 新訂單指數：15個>50%，5個<50%
• 新出口訂單指數：9個>50% (其中煙草業達72.6%，另有2個>60%), 11個<50%
• 生產指數：16個>50% (其中電氣機械及器材達73.2%，另有6個>60%), 4個<50%
• 從業人員：6個>50%，5個=50%，9個<50%
• 購進價格：9個>50% (其中石油加工及煉焦業達75%，另有6個>60%)，1個=50%，10個<50%
• 產成品庫存指數、原材料庫存指數和供應商配送時間指數下降

是否熟口熟面？不錯，情形和美國相若；當然，中國還得加上政策的幫助，所以如電氣機械及器材這些產業能同時在幾個範圍上都表現不俗；可是，這種行業屬於少數。大部份都有多於一項不如意，尤其在價格和從業人員指數，除卻一些特殊的外，有一半以上令人不滿意。明顯地不少行業就算在訂單增加和政策傾斜下，也沒打算多增人手，價格也不見得高，只是因為東西便宜了才有市場。這是會蠶食企業的毛利率，也令企業更傾向減薪和裁員。如此一來如何保障內需？又如何令經濟活動旺盛？

最後看看恆生指數。保歷加通道的上下限是15,910.57和14,286.29(即95%的數據都在此範圍內)。其中200天線居然包括在這千六點波幅內，100天和50天線都離其底部只有200-300點左右，明顯地這亦是波幅上落比美大勢，也因此倒過來說就是炒波幅比估方向更有意思。

美國數據之2

細讀ISM的數據，發現四月如下：1. 的確有改善，但總體來說仍然是收縮的。2. 新訂單的能增加的同時，消除庫存的壓力仍然大。3. 新訂單的價格比之前低，儘管原材料價已回升。再和工廠訂單的數據，三月份的收縮依然比預期高。儘管ISM四月份的報告顯示改善，但是縱合各數據來看主要是補庫存和低價錢的影響。低價格對後市的壞影響尤其大。在利潤壓縮下，工資和新職位均難以增長，消費難以真正復甦，通縮可能持續。只要銀行和大企業一出事，股市肯定又會改變方向。

美國各項指數公佈 （2009/4/30）

除芝加哥採購指數外，昨晚尚有其他指數公佈：

1． 個人收入：比上月下降0.3% (預期是下降0.2%)，其中薪酬部份下跌0.5%；和去年同比上升0.3%，
2． 個人消費：比上月下降0.2% (預期是0.0%)，和去年同比下降0.9%，
3． 核心個人消費價格指數：比上月上升0.2% (預期是上升0.2%)，
4． 顧主勞工成本指數：比上季上升0.3% (預期是上升0.5%)，
5． 申報失業人數：這星期有631k 宗數 (預期是640k) ，

另外，細讀芝加哥採購指數會發現價格下降及加了速的存貨套現促銷活動。

和剛公佈的GDP比預期下跌(5.0%)更多至6.1%但是” 消費市場良好” 縱合一起來看，去季消費的良好更多是建立在促銷活動而非個人消費力增強上。事實上由第一季僱主勞工成本比預期低，上月個人收入和消費均下降來看，消費市場實則不但沒有改善甚至仍在惡化中。這星期的申報失業人數雖然比預期少，但是和去年同比仍多出三十萬宗以上，如果下星期和本月仍停留在高位，則恐怕現在的採購指數所預期的” 消費將會改善” 將會落空，而” 增加的訂單” 將會變為存貨或促銷產品。再加上此前原材料價的短暫上升，三者均對零售股和各消費品股不利。