今天去了上海車展，感想如下：
1. 參觀人多，在W1-5和E1-4共23,000sqm總面積的展覽廳內擠滿人；洽談人少，各大車商的銷售人員空得很。當然，車展不是買車場合；而且今天是向公眾開放。可是，明顯地是趁熱鬧多，拍了照，看到香車美人就算，現場情況連想看到全車或坐進車內都極為困難；真正能買的人非常有限。短期內能擁有車的人不會激增，不過現在對車有興趣的人比去年增多不少，潛力大。
2. 今年很多車廠為配合環保和低耗油的主題或多或少都放一兩台油電混合或電車於展場。 其中BYD名頭雖響，真正拿出來的還是只有一部Dual Mode而已—所謂Dual Mode就是指同時是油電混合和電車。充電後最遠行程也是100km左右，基本上是依靠油電混合的方式才有續航能力。其他形號則依然是傳統汽車，其部件和設計從外觀看還是粗糙。因此，BYD雖然近水樓台掌握了電池和油電/電池轉換技術，但是還不足以全面在汽車市場競爭。更何況另一國內汽車公司奇瑞(Cherry)似乎顯出更大決心：不單止展出多於一款的油電混合和電車，更另租展位專門展出。不過，論成熟，仍屬豐田：基本上所有形號都能配備油電混合的選擇。這是其他參展商都做不到的。
由此看來，BYD絕不像財演吹噓般有先行者的優勢。第一，它本身亦面臨其他新進者的挑戰，而且看來速度不慢；第二，大車廠，特別如豐田這些也是先行者的，其開發和推廣能力明顯比BYD強。至於其他大車廠：Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Nissan, Lexus, Infinite等等亦不惶多讓，居然說推就推。第三，BYD除電池上，其他部份無甚出彩之處，明顯地整台汽車的開發比開發電池難。所以，當大車廠在HEV/EV技術急速追上時，BYD在整體汽車技術上卻相對落後，也就是說它的領先優勢容易被超越。所以，電車對BYD來說更多只能是作為開發和推廣其電池及關繫技術的載體，而不能作為主線。油電和電車將會是主戰場，勝負卻繫於整體開發和廣力上而不是個別能力。
3. 國內廠家主要還是靠美人作為吸引手段；其車比以前大有進步，但是跟國際車廠尚有相當距離。由這次各車廠的投放之大，商業味之濃，意圖相當明顯。今後國內汽車市場的競爭將會相當激烈。投資在汽車股，特別是國內的，還是以做買賣而不是長期持有的心態為宜。
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Sunday, April 19, 2009
升勢還能持續嗎？
各位請留神：同時小心中國和美國這一輪的燒銀紙攻勢已到尾聲：中國由一月至三月已經供應了3萬6千億RMB的信貸；美國由2009-03-23的星期開始至上星期的M2總共減少了94.3billion USD (先前由09 - 該星期前共增加了230.4billion USD的M2; 由3-23開始則連續三個星期M2都在減少)。US treasuries的10year Treasuries-TIPS的息差亦收窄中(由近200點子收窄至130點子，尚在收窄中)；短債孳息亦下降回去年11月份及今年1月份的水平。雖然企業債券的孳息亦下降，顯示市場認為企業暫時無倒閉風險，但是CDS的指數卻又重現升勢。似乎各大戶在作兩手準備。再加上實體經濟仍在惡化，恐怕升勢不能持續。
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Watch Out - Bull has Not Come Yet
1-month LIBOR has dropped from 0.54% to 0.41%, and 3-month LIBOR has dropped from 1.32% to 1.11% in one day. Expectations about the rebirth of credit from the bank, and hence the bull market, has widely spreaded.
However, please pay attention to the followings:
1. Both of them are still higher than the figures 3 months ago, which were 0.33% and 1.09% respectively. Today is April 15, 2009; yesterday was April 14, 2009 when DJI was closed at 7920.18. 3 months ago is January 14, 2009 when DJI was closed at 8212.49. Only a week later from that day, while the LIBOR remains the same level, the DJI has already closed to 7949.09. Therefore, the high or low of LIBOR, at the current stage, has nothing big to do with the stock market. Current situation is not comparable to the moment on October and November 2008; at that time the credit had contracted at an extreme speed and hence was an issue. Now, the LIBOR had rather been stablized despite the governnment pumping of money. The key now is whether or not the bank is willing to lend, and whether or not it has target firms to lend to.
2. Regarding the target firms/projects, currently under a rising unemployment rate, contracting consumption rate and price, retails and hence production are no longer the targets. Nor are the collapsed property and financial market. Government projects, particularly infra-structural, may be targets. Nevertheless, raw material and energy firms have already over-expanded to over-capacity. Meanwhile, the demand even raised by the government cannot match the peak period when many of those firms had taken as reference for expansion. Checking the current BDI can tell the story: the rise has been relaxing from the recent peak at 2271 to 1492.
3. At the same time, the actual 3A banking and finance rates have not followed the drop of LIBOR: 5 year is 5.14%; 10-year is 5.72%, the same as the ones since two weeks ago. It means the banks have no intentions to relax on commercial loan.
4. Also, the mortgage rates are very stable at a range of 4.74% to 6.38%, no sign of relaxation from the banks either.
5. On the other hand, treasuries yield rates have not subjected to big changes; short-term even subjects to a drop on yield rates. Corporate bond yield rates have also been dropping back from 7.x% to 6.94%. The demand on safer investment tools is still substantial; risk assessment maintains high.
6. While previously the market has speculated on sharp inflation and hence the gold price was once pushed up, currently gold had stayed at a lower range. The expectation on a near term sharp inflation has vanished. When the stock market was hot but the bond market was not dead, and yet gold and other commodities were weakening, signs of a slow inflation and hence the vanish of near-term quick recovery was told.
7. Other economic figures are not supporting a revive of bull market either. PPI remains weak, and it is even more fore-telling than CPI, as PPI reflects the demands of the market on goods at certain price level several months later (due to the time to finish a product). The myth about new and existing homes sales have been cracked before (please refer to my previous posts).
Combining these factors, the current uptrend is more a manipulated rebound than the recovery of the market as a whole. It is a good chance to play with quick-in-quick-out and call-put strategy but not for long hold.
However, please pay attention to the followings:
1. Both of them are still higher than the figures 3 months ago, which were 0.33% and 1.09% respectively. Today is April 15, 2009; yesterday was April 14, 2009 when DJI was closed at 7920.18. 3 months ago is January 14, 2009 when DJI was closed at 8212.49. Only a week later from that day, while the LIBOR remains the same level, the DJI has already closed to 7949.09. Therefore, the high or low of LIBOR, at the current stage, has nothing big to do with the stock market. Current situation is not comparable to the moment on October and November 2008; at that time the credit had contracted at an extreme speed and hence was an issue. Now, the LIBOR had rather been stablized despite the governnment pumping of money. The key now is whether or not the bank is willing to lend, and whether or not it has target firms to lend to.
2. Regarding the target firms/projects, currently under a rising unemployment rate, contracting consumption rate and price, retails and hence production are no longer the targets. Nor are the collapsed property and financial market. Government projects, particularly infra-structural, may be targets. Nevertheless, raw material and energy firms have already over-expanded to over-capacity. Meanwhile, the demand even raised by the government cannot match the peak period when many of those firms had taken as reference for expansion. Checking the current BDI can tell the story: the rise has been relaxing from the recent peak at 2271 to 1492.
3. At the same time, the actual 3A banking and finance rates have not followed the drop of LIBOR: 5 year is 5.14%; 10-year is 5.72%, the same as the ones since two weeks ago. It means the banks have no intentions to relax on commercial loan.
4. Also, the mortgage rates are very stable at a range of 4.74% to 6.38%, no sign of relaxation from the banks either.
5. On the other hand, treasuries yield rates have not subjected to big changes; short-term even subjects to a drop on yield rates. Corporate bond yield rates have also been dropping back from 7.x% to 6.94%. The demand on safer investment tools is still substantial; risk assessment maintains high.
6. While previously the market has speculated on sharp inflation and hence the gold price was once pushed up, currently gold had stayed at a lower range. The expectation on a near term sharp inflation has vanished. When the stock market was hot but the bond market was not dead, and yet gold and other commodities were weakening, signs of a slow inflation and hence the vanish of near-term quick recovery was told.
7. Other economic figures are not supporting a revive of bull market either. PPI remains weak, and it is even more fore-telling than CPI, as PPI reflects the demands of the market on goods at certain price level several months later (due to the time to finish a product). The myth about new and existing homes sales have been cracked before (please refer to my previous posts).
Combining these factors, the current uptrend is more a manipulated rebound than the recovery of the market as a whole. It is a good chance to play with quick-in-quick-out and call-put strategy but not for long hold.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Updates Again
Today the FED Fund rate is +0.15%. Money flow starts to recycle back to FED through both private and public sector purchases. The market still lacks the confidence.
Meanwhile, corporate bonds stand still at around 7.30% yield.
Gold price is already only 882.3USD/ounce.
So are other raw materials and yen, even Euros.
Apparently the previous reb0und starts to loss some momentum, or at least the "work done" that boosted it to the existing level.
Actually, the softening price of commodities can be fortold by BDI.
Now lets see if my former little estimation will be realized or not.
Meanwhile, corporate bonds stand still at around 7.30% yield.
Gold price is already only 882.3USD/ounce.
So are other raw materials and yen, even Euros.
Apparently the previous reb0und starts to loss some momentum, or at least the "work done" that boosted it to the existing level.
Actually, the softening price of commodities can be fortold by BDI.
Now lets see if my former little estimation will be realized or not.
昨天於信報的答問
現時這個熊彈，消息為主：一眾跌殘的金融地產股和受政策優惠的基建資源股上升；其他的未然。可是，再估計一下，要谷上大股要動用不少錢，來源主要仍是FED: FED Fund actual rate = -0.15%。即是說，美國政府大派短錢所致。一旦到期沒新的錢再谷，恐怕防守性強的股份會再吃香。要是很不幸地這一次又再大跌，令到連美債都缺乏信任的話，則黃金或能重拾升勢了。
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Quick Updates
The following rates of USA is more indicative to the news of "No more mark-to-market" and so-called "improving home sales":
1. FED Fund Rate = -0.19%
2. 1-month LIBOR = 0.49%
3. 3-month LIBOR = 1.17%
4. 3-month T-Bill = 0.21% (difference between 3 and 4 is TED = 97pts)
5. 5-year 3A Banking and Finance Rate = 5.14%
6. 10-year 3A Banking and Finance Rate = 5.72%
7. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield = 7.32%
8. High-yield Grade Corporate Bond Yield = 16.32%
9. 30-year Fixed Mortgage = 5.05%
10. New Claim Jobless = 669k worse than expected 655k
11. Factory orders = 1.8% > expected 1.5% but mainly due to the increase on petro-chemicals not other orders.
12. Credit Card Bad debt = 8.82% of total credit card loan.
13. BDI continues to be soft at around 15xx level.
Money injection is the cause of the rise of stock market. But this cannot last long.
1. FED Fund Rate = -0.19%
2. 1-month LIBOR = 0.49%
3. 3-month LIBOR = 1.17%
4. 3-month T-Bill = 0.21% (difference between 3 and 4 is TED = 97pts)
5. 5-year 3A Banking and Finance Rate = 5.14%
6. 10-year 3A Banking and Finance Rate = 5.72%
7. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield = 7.32%
8. High-yield Grade Corporate Bond Yield = 16.32%
9. 30-year Fixed Mortgage = 5.05%
10. New Claim Jobless = 669k worse than expected 655k
11. Factory orders = 1.8% > expected 1.5% but mainly due to the increase on petro-chemicals not other orders.
12. Credit Card Bad debt = 8.82% of total credit card loan.
13. BDI continues to be soft at around 15xx level.
Money injection is the cause of the rise of stock market. But this cannot last long.
Short Prediction After HSI Rose by 1000pts +
Today HSI rose by 1000pts + but be careful for the following phenomena on stock option market:
1. Largest trading volume today occurs at 12000 put.
2. Overall put open interest contracts are 25027; call open interest contracts are 32014.
3. Change in OI: put is +1206; call is +675.
The following is the brief outline on the news to be announced in USA:
April 2 (USA) and April 3:
"White and Black"
"White Knight" on statistics may appear on factory orders or ISM non-mfg indexes. Nevertheless, "Black Swan" can also appear on these 2 figures, plus jobless claim and employment situation.
Remarks: Ching Ming Holiday.
April 6 - 10:
"Readjustment Week"
International Trade and Treasury Budget - international trade may not go further down but may remain bad despite the news can report in a manipulative way as "stablized" or "within expectation". Treasury budget will not be good with reasons well-known.
Remarks: Ching Ming holiday in China; Easter, Good Friday.
April 13 - 17:
"Fluctuation Week"
CPI, PPI, Treasury International Capital - The former 2, CPI may not improve much but PPI might improve if according to the spring seasonal re-start on projects as well as rebound from over-panic. Treasury International Capital may stay the same - it depends largely on the international buyers. Observations on G20 may help.
Housing Starts, Housing Market Index, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales - They may provide good news to fuel the market, mainly due to seasonal effects, rebound from over panic, or false vision on the future.
Remarks: Easter, Monday holiday.
April 20 - 24:
"Boring Week (well, if no BLACK SWAN)"
Only figures on Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales - spring seasonal effects may continue and stop at this week. Rebound from panic perhaps helps - yet, jobless rate may start to tighten as another wave of university graduates may graduate and hunt for jobs. While many companies are still downsizing or at least have their headcounts frozen, the new graduates may find nowhere to go.
Remarks: Clearing of Futures.
April 27 - May1:
"Boring or Non-boring, this is the question Week"
FED announcement - the rate itself may not be indicative; the tone in the FOMC minutes may.
GDP - may show some stablization or improvement, if the home sales figure is "right" "somehow". But as pointed out before, the actual home sales figure is dropping - only the yearly estimation has "improved".
Personal Income and Outlay - stablized but not good to anywhere.
Remarks: Labour Holiday in China
With those dates and the current option pricing at head, this month can be fluctuating and misleading. The rise can be fueled but gone easily. The drop may be deep: V or not still depends. Good time to unload trash; bad time to hunt for red october for the torpedo may hit from an unimaged angle.
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