Saturday, April 25, 2009
2. 今年很多車廠為配合環保和低耗油的主題或多或少都放一兩台油電混合或電車於展場。 其中BYD名頭雖響，真正拿出來的還是只有一部Dual Mode而已—所謂Dual Mode就是指同時是油電混合和電車。充電後最遠行程也是100km左右，基本上是依靠油電混合的方式才有續航能力。其他形號則依然是傳統汽車，其部件和設計從外觀看還是粗糙。因此，BYD雖然近水樓台掌握了電池和油電/電池轉換技術，但是還不足以全面在汽車市場競爭。更何況另一國內汽車公司奇瑞(Cherry)似乎顯出更大決心：不單止展出多於一款的油電混合和電車，更另租展位專門展出。不過，論成熟，仍屬豐田：基本上所有形號都能配備油電混合的選擇。這是其他參展商都做不到的。
由此看來，BYD絕不像財演吹噓般有先行者的優勢。第一，它本身亦面臨其他新進者的挑戰，而且看來速度不慢；第二，大車廠，特別如豐田這些也是先行者的，其開發和推廣能力明顯比BYD強。至於其他大車廠：Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Nissan, Lexus, Infinite等等亦不惶多讓，居然說推就推。第三，BYD除電池上，其他部份無甚出彩之處，明顯地整台汽車的開發比開發電池難。所以，當大車廠在HEV/EV技術急速追上時，BYD在整體汽車技術上卻相對落後，也就是說它的領先優勢容易被超越。所以，電車對BYD來說更多只能是作為開發和推廣其電池及關繫技術的載體，而不能作為主線。油電和電車將會是主戰場，勝負卻繫於整體開發和廣力上而不是個別能力。
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
However, please pay attention to the followings:
1. Both of them are still higher than the figures 3 months ago, which were 0.33% and 1.09% respectively. Today is April 15, 2009; yesterday was April 14, 2009 when DJI was closed at 7920.18. 3 months ago is January 14, 2009 when DJI was closed at 8212.49. Only a week later from that day, while the LIBOR remains the same level, the DJI has already closed to 7949.09. Therefore, the high or low of LIBOR, at the current stage, has nothing big to do with the stock market. Current situation is not comparable to the moment on October and November 2008; at that time the credit had contracted at an extreme speed and hence was an issue. Now, the LIBOR had rather been stablized despite the governnment pumping of money. The key now is whether or not the bank is willing to lend, and whether or not it has target firms to lend to.
2. Regarding the target firms/projects, currently under a rising unemployment rate, contracting consumption rate and price, retails and hence production are no longer the targets. Nor are the collapsed property and financial market. Government projects, particularly infra-structural, may be targets. Nevertheless, raw material and energy firms have already over-expanded to over-capacity. Meanwhile, the demand even raised by the government cannot match the peak period when many of those firms had taken as reference for expansion. Checking the current BDI can tell the story: the rise has been relaxing from the recent peak at 2271 to 1492.
3. At the same time, the actual 3A banking and finance rates have not followed the drop of LIBOR: 5 year is 5.14%; 10-year is 5.72%, the same as the ones since two weeks ago. It means the banks have no intentions to relax on commercial loan.
4. Also, the mortgage rates are very stable at a range of 4.74% to 6.38%, no sign of relaxation from the banks either.
5. On the other hand, treasuries yield rates have not subjected to big changes; short-term even subjects to a drop on yield rates. Corporate bond yield rates have also been dropping back from 7.x% to 6.94%. The demand on safer investment tools is still substantial; risk assessment maintains high.
6. While previously the market has speculated on sharp inflation and hence the gold price was once pushed up, currently gold had stayed at a lower range. The expectation on a near term sharp inflation has vanished. When the stock market was hot but the bond market was not dead, and yet gold and other commodities were weakening, signs of a slow inflation and hence the vanish of near-term quick recovery was told.
7. Other economic figures are not supporting a revive of bull market either. PPI remains weak, and it is even more fore-telling than CPI, as PPI reflects the demands of the market on goods at certain price level several months later (due to the time to finish a product). The myth about new and existing homes sales have been cracked before (please refer to my previous posts).
Combining these factors, the current uptrend is more a manipulated rebound than the recovery of the market as a whole. It is a good chance to play with quick-in-quick-out and call-put strategy but not for long hold.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Meanwhile, corporate bonds stand still at around 7.30% yield.
Gold price is already only 882.3USD/ounce.
So are other raw materials and yen, even Euros.
Apparently the previous reb0und starts to loss some momentum, or at least the "work done" that boosted it to the existing level.
Actually, the softening price of commodities can be fortold by BDI.
Now lets see if my former little estimation will be realized or not.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
1. FED Fund Rate = -0.19%
2. 1-month LIBOR = 0.49%
3. 3-month LIBOR = 1.17%
4. 3-month T-Bill = 0.21% (difference between 3 and 4 is TED = 97pts)
5. 5-year 3A Banking and Finance Rate = 5.14%
6. 10-year 3A Banking and Finance Rate = 5.72%
7. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield = 7.32%
8. High-yield Grade Corporate Bond Yield = 16.32%
9. 30-year Fixed Mortgage = 5.05%
10. New Claim Jobless = 669k worse than expected 655k
11. Factory orders = 1.8% > expected 1.5% but mainly due to the increase on petro-chemicals not other orders.
12. Credit Card Bad debt = 8.82% of total credit card loan.
13. BDI continues to be soft at around 15xx level.
Money injection is the cause of the rise of stock market. But this cannot last long.
Today HSI rose by 1000pts + but be careful for the following phenomena on stock option market:
1. Largest trading volume today occurs at 12000 put.
2. Overall put open interest contracts are 25027; call open interest contracts are 32014.
3. Change in OI: put is +1206; call is +675.
The following is the brief outline on the news to be announced in USA:
April 2 (USA) and April 3:
"White and Black"
"White Knight" on statistics may appear on factory orders or ISM non-mfg indexes. Nevertheless, "Black Swan" can also appear on these 2 figures, plus jobless claim and employment situation.
Remarks: Ching Ming Holiday.
April 6 - 10:
International Trade and Treasury Budget - international trade may not go further down but may remain bad despite the news can report in a manipulative way as "stablized" or "within expectation". Treasury budget will not be good with reasons well-known.
Remarks: Ching Ming holiday in China; Easter, Good Friday.
April 13 - 17:
CPI, PPI, Treasury International Capital - The former 2, CPI may not improve much but PPI might improve if according to the spring seasonal re-start on projects as well as rebound from over-panic. Treasury International Capital may stay the same - it depends largely on the international buyers. Observations on G20 may help.
Housing Starts, Housing Market Index, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales - They may provide good news to fuel the market, mainly due to seasonal effects, rebound from over panic, or false vision on the future.
Remarks: Easter, Monday holiday.
April 20 - 24:
"Boring Week (well, if no BLACK SWAN)"
Only figures on Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales - spring seasonal effects may continue and stop at this week. Rebound from panic perhaps helps - yet, jobless rate may start to tighten as another wave of university graduates may graduate and hunt for jobs. While many companies are still downsizing or at least have their headcounts frozen, the new graduates may find nowhere to go.
Remarks: Clearing of Futures.
April 27 - May1:
"Boring or Non-boring, this is the question Week"
FED announcement - the rate itself may not be indicative; the tone in the FOMC minutes may.
GDP - may show some stablization or improvement, if the home sales figure is "right" "somehow". But as pointed out before, the actual home sales figure is dropping - only the yearly estimation has "improved".
Personal Income and Outlay - stablized but not good to anywhere.
Remarks: Labour Holiday in China
With those dates and the current option pricing at head, this month can be fluctuating and misleading. The rise can be fueled but gone easily. The drop may be deep: V or not still depends. Good time to unload trash; bad time to hunt for red october for the torpedo may hit from an unimaged angle.