Thursday, April 2, 2009

Short Prediction After HSI Rose by 1000pts +

Today HSI rose by 1000pts + but be careful for the following phenomena on stock option market:

1. Largest trading volume today occurs at 12000 put.

2. Overall put open interest contracts are 25027; call open interest contracts are 32014.

3. Change in OI: put is +1206; call is +675.

The following is the brief outline on the news to be announced in USA:
April 2 (USA) and April 3:
"White and Black"
"White Knight" on statistics may appear on factory orders or ISM non-mfg indexes. Nevertheless, "Black Swan" can also appear on these 2 figures, plus jobless claim and employment situation.
Remarks: Ching Ming Holiday.

April 6 - 10:
"Readjustment Week"
International Trade and Treasury Budget - international trade may not go further down but may remain bad despite the news can report in a manipulative way as "stablized" or "within expectation". Treasury budget will not be good with reasons well-known.
Remarks: Ching Ming holiday in China; Easter, Good Friday.

April 13 - 17:
"Fluctuation Week"
CPI, PPI, Treasury International Capital - The former 2, CPI may not improve much but PPI might improve if according to the spring seasonal re-start on projects as well as rebound from over-panic. Treasury International Capital may stay the same - it depends largely on the international buyers. Observations on G20 may help.
Housing Starts, Housing Market Index, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales - They may provide good news to fuel the market, mainly due to seasonal effects, rebound from over panic, or false vision on the future.
Remarks: Easter, Monday holiday.

April 20 - 24:
"Boring Week (well, if no BLACK SWAN)"
Only figures on Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales - spring seasonal effects may continue and stop at this week. Rebound from panic perhaps helps - yet, jobless rate may start to tighten as another wave of university graduates may graduate and hunt for jobs. While many companies are still downsizing or at least have their headcounts frozen, the new graduates may find nowhere to go.
Remarks: Clearing of Futures.

April 27 - May1:
"Boring or Non-boring, this is the question Week"
FED announcement - the rate itself may not be indicative; the tone in the FOMC minutes may.
GDP - may show some stablization or improvement, if the home sales figure is "right" "somehow". But as pointed out before, the actual home sales figure is dropping - only the yearly estimation has "improved".
Personal Income and Outlay - stablized but not good to anywhere.
Remarks: Labour Holiday in China

With those dates and the current option pricing at head, this month can be fluctuating and misleading. The rise can be fueled but gone easily. The drop may be deep: V or not still depends. Good time to unload trash; bad time to hunt for red october for the torpedo may hit from an unimaged angle.

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