Dear investors,
Please take a look at the following, though a bit old (Oct 3):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=CAT%3AUS&sid=a7N_egLc7pqg
Interestingly some energy and material suppliers as well as machinery suppliers are still actually making good money even up to now.
I will dig their financial statements and see what I can come up with.
David
Thursday, October 9, 2008
OLD 5: 2008-10-6
Dear Investors,
BDI is dropping like hell, and it is apparent that the bulk shipping industry has just received a great amount of cancel of existing orders and within at minimum a half a year the trend will not go up. The expectation on the China and India markets is also bad.
Thus, if we correct the view that the rebound will happen, then we can come up with another thinking: i.e. deflation can come before inflation. And the rebound on raw materials may not happen at all.
I will further update you about my thoughts. But for the moment, please remember: Cash is King.
Best regards,
David
BDI is dropping like hell, and it is apparent that the bulk shipping industry has just received a great amount of cancel of existing orders and within at minimum a half a year the trend will not go up. The expectation on the China and India markets is also bad.
Thus, if we correct the view that the rebound will happen, then we can come up with another thinking: i.e. deflation can come before inflation. And the rebound on raw materials may not happen at all.
I will further update you about my thoughts. But for the moment, please remember: Cash is King.
Best regards,
David
OLD 4: 2008-9-25
Dear investors:
Please take a look on this news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=a7TCuxaJcJDE&refer=munibonds
Now even the municipal bonds, traditionally not very coupled with national economy and has a stable interest rate, has its rate surges to a 6-year high. Sometimes they cannot even find the buyers. The distrust on US system is strong. Even if the 700b bailout is established and restore the creditability to the system, inevitably USD holders will not hold for long despite not many where else to go.
David
Please take a look on this news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=a7TCuxaJcJDE&refer=munibonds
Now even the municipal bonds, traditionally not very coupled with national economy and has a stable interest rate, has its rate surges to a 6-year high. Sometimes they cannot even find the buyers. The distrust on US system is strong. Even if the 700b bailout is established and restore the creditability to the system, inevitably USD holders will not hold for long despite not many where else to go.
David
OLD 3: 2008-9-23
Dear friends,
Significant movements on Key Rates and Bond rates are noted:
LIBOR:
1month from 2.47% to 3.18%
3month from 2.81% to 3.20%
AAA Banking and Finance
5-year from 4.97% to 5.96%
10-year from 5.94 to 6.99%
These rates have significantly increased and have not dropped despite FED's announcement on saving measures.
Mortgage Rate changes are also interesting:
While 30-year and 15-year Fixed Rate has decreased by 39pts and 16pts respectively, the 1-year ARM has increased by 32pts instead.
Now T-bill Rate changes are similar to Mortgage Rate:
For 5-year and longer maturity bonds, yield rate rise and price drop.
For 2-year and 3-year maturity bonds, yield rate drop and price rise.
For coupons within a year, both yield rate and price rise.
If we integrate these information together, we can conclude that the trust in-between bank has been shaken and is still shaking, and instead of financing between banks banks look for funds from the government. It will induce a further weakening on other commercial activities as well. Besides, banks also seek short-term shelter on short-term government coupons and further hints a contraction on financial activities. Nevertheless, due to government intervention, confidence on USD is weakened and reflected on the rise of yield on longer maturity bonds.
On the property market, due to the drop on the market as well as the losing confidence of potential buyers (for self-use), the long term fixed mortgage rate is dropping which reflects the eagerness of attracting new buyers (to quick sell). Yet, the sub-prime and Alt-A part, reflected by 1-yr ARM rate, is increasing. So, the bank still evaluates higher risk of default on speculation market. If that is the case, it means the property market will still worsen. Coupling with the CDO and CDS problems on banks, the entire financial market will still subject to high fluctuation, with a bigger drop waiting at the end.
When the above scenarios further couples with the US government intervention, in the half a year period an expectation on the drop of USD and hence another rebound on Gold, Oil, and raw materials can be expected. The rebound inertia, however, may not be as substantial as early 2008, due to the possible lack of money on speculation. Yet, we can at least expect the rebound can compensate the gap of latest drop and may return to 50-day line above. After that, it will subject to market situations. The potential of deflation happening before hyper-inflation is still substantial and plausible.
Thus, for the coming 3-6 months, we had better continue a conservative strategy overall. Yet, grasping the rebound on commodities, we can either unload existing stocks at a higher price and take profit or (not really recommended) attempts to capture profit through surfing. Speculating on the downside of the equity market is another way of taking profit. On the other hand, although USD will subject to another downside pressure, speculating on the drop of USD against EUR, JPY, and other commodity currency is not recommended as the fluctuation may not be as big as last year, due to the downside of OECD economies, as well as competitiion from commodities and Gold.
Afterall, "CASH IS KING".
Best regards,
David Chan
P.S. The above are only my non-professional opinions. Please feel free to comment/critize/scorn at. :)
Disclaimer: The above is onyl a personal opinion and does not form any part of the wills or contracts to invite and ask for business, nor does the author have any direct and indirect benefits received through the sharing of opinions or attempt to benefit through the influence of others investment tendency and action. The sharing of opinions is purely voluntary and acts as a hobby.
Significant movements on Key Rates and Bond rates are noted:
LIBOR:
1month from 2.47% to 3.18%
3month from 2.81% to 3.20%
AAA Banking and Finance
5-year from 4.97% to 5.96%
10-year from 5.94 to 6.99%
These rates have significantly increased and have not dropped despite FED's announcement on saving measures.
Mortgage Rate changes are also interesting:
While 30-year and 15-year Fixed Rate has decreased by 39pts and 16pts respectively, the 1-year ARM has increased by 32pts instead.
Now T-bill Rate changes are similar to Mortgage Rate:
For 5-year and longer maturity bonds, yield rate rise and price drop.
For 2-year and 3-year maturity bonds, yield rate drop and price rise.
For coupons within a year, both yield rate and price rise.
If we integrate these information together, we can conclude that the trust in-between bank has been shaken and is still shaking, and instead of financing between banks banks look for funds from the government. It will induce a further weakening on other commercial activities as well. Besides, banks also seek short-term shelter on short-term government coupons and further hints a contraction on financial activities. Nevertheless, due to government intervention, confidence on USD is weakened and reflected on the rise of yield on longer maturity bonds.
On the property market, due to the drop on the market as well as the losing confidence of potential buyers (for self-use), the long term fixed mortgage rate is dropping which reflects the eagerness of attracting new buyers (to quick sell). Yet, the sub-prime and Alt-A part, reflected by 1-yr ARM rate, is increasing. So, the bank still evaluates higher risk of default on speculation market. If that is the case, it means the property market will still worsen. Coupling with the CDO and CDS problems on banks, the entire financial market will still subject to high fluctuation, with a bigger drop waiting at the end.
When the above scenarios further couples with the US government intervention, in the half a year period an expectation on the drop of USD and hence another rebound on Gold, Oil, and raw materials can be expected. The rebound inertia, however, may not be as substantial as early 2008, due to the possible lack of money on speculation. Yet, we can at least expect the rebound can compensate the gap of latest drop and may return to 50-day line above. After that, it will subject to market situations. The potential of deflation happening before hyper-inflation is still substantial and plausible.
Thus, for the coming 3-6 months, we had better continue a conservative strategy overall. Yet, grasping the rebound on commodities, we can either unload existing stocks at a higher price and take profit or (not really recommended) attempts to capture profit through surfing. Speculating on the downside of the equity market is another way of taking profit. On the other hand, although USD will subject to another downside pressure, speculating on the drop of USD against EUR, JPY, and other commodity currency is not recommended as the fluctuation may not be as big as last year, due to the downside of OECD economies, as well as competitiion from commodities and Gold.
Afterall, "CASH IS KING".
Best regards,
David Chan
P.S. The above are only my non-professional opinions. Please feel free to comment/critize/scorn at. :)
Disclaimer: The above is onyl a personal opinion and does not form any part of the wills or contracts to invite and ask for business, nor does the author have any direct and indirect benefits received through the sharing of opinions or attempt to benefit through the influence of others investment tendency and action. The sharing of opinions is purely voluntary and acts as a hobby.
OLD 2: 2008-7-23
Dear Investors,
With reference to the attached article, the sovereign fund of China had not made major investments on items/projects like overseas raw materials, energy, and other strategic materials but really on foreign financial institutions. If that is the case, it means both the strategic insight and execution ability of China sovereign fund are weak and ruthless.
In addition, according to the TV program I watched in China, the sales of household appliances are decreasing of this month are decreased by more than 10% than last month, including air conditioners! In other words, suffering from inflation, burst of bubbles of both equity and property markets, and the shrink of manufacturing and export business all combine together work largely against the further growth of internal consumption which once analysts had spoken highly of.
On the other side of the world, US still maintained a high mortgage rate, and even reached a record high of 6.40% for both 30year and 1year ARM. America Express interium result was disappointing and indicative of the forecoming collapse of credit market. Both added together will turn the overseas investors to be more risk-adverse than other period. Also, FED thus, facing a risk of credit crunch higher than hyper-inflation, will be "forced" to continue the low-interest policy to prevent from a total collapse.
Since the consumption by consumers in both OECD and China + India + SEAsia will decrease, the demand on raw material will also decrease. With such expectation, raw material price will readjust. The low USD currency rate may offset the loss of part of such decrease; nevertheless, with a forecoming credit crunch the hot money in the market will seek shelter on fixed-yield products. However, it may not be the US T-bills nor other government T-bills. It may be simple deposit on strong currency, credit swap contracts, or partially, gold.
Yet as gold's price is also subjected to market hot money's speculation, gold cannot be a 100% hedge against the depreciating USD. It will maintain on 926 +/- 50 level.
Overall speaking it is time to manage risk rather than seek return. Another wave of readjustment starts.
美元貶值 中國金融政策受挫
本周一（七月二十一日）是人民幣滙率改革三周年的日子，按中國外滙交易中心在當天公布，銀行同業外滙市場人民幣兌美元滙價報六點八二七一，較滙改前八點二七六五升值百分之二十一點二三，這個升幅，對於中國外貿出口、金融穩定以至國家金融政策應該「何去何從」，都有深刻和長遠的影響。
人民幣升值，主要原因之一是美元貶值速度太快，如果以兌日圓、英鎊等貨幣計，人民幣升幅要小得多，兌歐羅甚至出現貶值。人民幣兌美元滙價不斷攀升，至少為中國政府帶來了三大難題。第一、是外滙儲備萎縮。根據人民銀行七月十五日的數字，截至今年六月底國家的外滙儲備達一萬八千多億美元，由於絕大部分是美元資產，美元貶值令外滙儲備損失慘重，內地經濟學者推算，如果外儲八成以上是美元資產，在一個月內蒸發的外儲金額就達到三百億美元。第二、是美國的金融風暴會直接影響中國。據美國財政部在上月三十日公布的海外持有美國證券狀況報告，中國持有約三千七百六十億美元公司債券，其中資產支持的債券達二千零六十億美元，這種債券主要是住房抵押債券，由房利美和房貸美兩家機構發行或擔保；眾所周知，「兩房」股價在出事後一度暴跌達五成，換言之，兩房債券的風險也波及中國，原來用以保值的美元資產，現在反過來為中國造成更大損失。第三、中國的巨額外儲中有二千億美元通過外滙投資公司進行海外投資，但佔頗大比例仍然投資在美元資產上，其中以去年五月收購百仕通一成股份的投資損失最大，上周五百仕通收市價為十七點二九美元，中投的賬面虧損達十二點四八億美元，跌幅超過四成。至於另一筆的五十億美元購入摩根士丹利可轉換股權單位的交易，也同樣因大摩股價下跌而造成虧損，雖然上述兩項損失都只在賬面上反映，但美國市場的波動加上美元長期弱勢，中國往往會吃眼前虧而又對「慘況」無能為力！
中國要作為經濟大國，最終必須制定自己一套金融政策，放棄與美元掛鈎，否則在國際金融市場上始終無法有效控制風險、被美元牽着鼻子走，現在人民幣兌美元升值速度加快，也是出現在美國次按危機升級之後，聯儲局因擔心信貸收縮和經濟衰退而向市場注入大量流動性，把利率大幅調低，大大加重了人民幣的升值壓力。事實上，現在連胡錦濤主席在年初提出的從緊貨幣政策也難以維持，主要就是因為美國金融風暴轉趨惡化，連帶中國受「牽連」，國家的宏觀調控無法落實，長此以往，不但貨幣政策，連經濟政策也會成為美國的附庸！
人民幣滙價上升，是造成企業出口疲弱的主因之一，當前珠三角、山東等外資企業紛紛倒閉，除了內地產業政策調整令成本上漲，人民幣升值加快令企業利潤大幅收窄，也是重要原因。根據內地媒體的調查，一名長三角的廠商去年年底接到一筆一百萬美元的訂單，以當時人民幣滙率七點三〇四四六作為報價，到了今年三月底的中間價已上升至七點〇一九，美元貶值，廠商在滙率損失達到二十八萬五千多元（人民幣．下同），以紡織品一般利潤率百分之五計，這筆訂單的應有利潤約為三十六點五萬元，經滙率因素「打折」，利潤所得最後不到八萬元，令廠商損失慘重。
隨着內地資本市場進一步開放，人民幣滙率是否應該沿用傳統的貿易和出口指標，正受到不少質疑，國內金融界認為，以資本市場的流動性來衡量滙價，是另一個可行的參考辦法，尤其近期境外資本流入的數量飆升，中國外儲持續保持高增長，資金進出影響人民幣滙率的作用正愈來愈大。因應新形勢，調節人民幣滙價的形成機制，看來是中國政府急不容緩的任務。
With reference to the attached article, the sovereign fund of China had not made major investments on items/projects like overseas raw materials, energy, and other strategic materials but really on foreign financial institutions. If that is the case, it means both the strategic insight and execution ability of China sovereign fund are weak and ruthless.
In addition, according to the TV program I watched in China, the sales of household appliances are decreasing of this month are decreased by more than 10% than last month, including air conditioners! In other words, suffering from inflation, burst of bubbles of both equity and property markets, and the shrink of manufacturing and export business all combine together work largely against the further growth of internal consumption which once analysts had spoken highly of.
On the other side of the world, US still maintained a high mortgage rate, and even reached a record high of 6.40% for both 30year and 1year ARM. America Express interium result was disappointing and indicative of the forecoming collapse of credit market. Both added together will turn the overseas investors to be more risk-adverse than other period. Also, FED thus, facing a risk of credit crunch higher than hyper-inflation, will be "forced" to continue the low-interest policy to prevent from a total collapse.
Since the consumption by consumers in both OECD and China + India + SEAsia will decrease, the demand on raw material will also decrease. With such expectation, raw material price will readjust. The low USD currency rate may offset the loss of part of such decrease; nevertheless, with a forecoming credit crunch the hot money in the market will seek shelter on fixed-yield products. However, it may not be the US T-bills nor other government T-bills. It may be simple deposit on strong currency, credit swap contracts, or partially, gold.
Yet as gold's price is also subjected to market hot money's speculation, gold cannot be a 100% hedge against the depreciating USD. It will maintain on 926 +/- 50 level.
Overall speaking it is time to manage risk rather than seek return. Another wave of readjustment starts.
美元貶值 中國金融政策受挫
本周一（七月二十一日）是人民幣滙率改革三周年的日子，按中國外滙交易中心在當天公布，銀行同業外滙市場人民幣兌美元滙價報六點八二七一，較滙改前八點二七六五升值百分之二十一點二三，這個升幅，對於中國外貿出口、金融穩定以至國家金融政策應該「何去何從」，都有深刻和長遠的影響。
人民幣升值，主要原因之一是美元貶值速度太快，如果以兌日圓、英鎊等貨幣計，人民幣升幅要小得多，兌歐羅甚至出現貶值。人民幣兌美元滙價不斷攀升，至少為中國政府帶來了三大難題。第一、是外滙儲備萎縮。根據人民銀行七月十五日的數字，截至今年六月底國家的外滙儲備達一萬八千多億美元，由於絕大部分是美元資產，美元貶值令外滙儲備損失慘重，內地經濟學者推算，如果外儲八成以上是美元資產，在一個月內蒸發的外儲金額就達到三百億美元。第二、是美國的金融風暴會直接影響中國。據美國財政部在上月三十日公布的海外持有美國證券狀況報告，中國持有約三千七百六十億美元公司債券，其中資產支持的債券達二千零六十億美元，這種債券主要是住房抵押債券，由房利美和房貸美兩家機構發行或擔保；眾所周知，「兩房」股價在出事後一度暴跌達五成，換言之，兩房債券的風險也波及中國，原來用以保值的美元資產，現在反過來為中國造成更大損失。第三、中國的巨額外儲中有二千億美元通過外滙投資公司進行海外投資，但佔頗大比例仍然投資在美元資產上，其中以去年五月收購百仕通一成股份的投資損失最大，上周五百仕通收市價為十七點二九美元，中投的賬面虧損達十二點四八億美元，跌幅超過四成。至於另一筆的五十億美元購入摩根士丹利可轉換股權單位的交易，也同樣因大摩股價下跌而造成虧損，雖然上述兩項損失都只在賬面上反映，但美國市場的波動加上美元長期弱勢，中國往往會吃眼前虧而又對「慘況」無能為力！
中國要作為經濟大國，最終必須制定自己一套金融政策，放棄與美元掛鈎，否則在國際金融市場上始終無法有效控制風險、被美元牽着鼻子走，現在人民幣兌美元升值速度加快，也是出現在美國次按危機升級之後，聯儲局因擔心信貸收縮和經濟衰退而向市場注入大量流動性，把利率大幅調低，大大加重了人民幣的升值壓力。事實上，現在連胡錦濤主席在年初提出的從緊貨幣政策也難以維持，主要就是因為美國金融風暴轉趨惡化，連帶中國受「牽連」，國家的宏觀調控無法落實，長此以往，不但貨幣政策，連經濟政策也會成為美國的附庸！
人民幣滙價上升，是造成企業出口疲弱的主因之一，當前珠三角、山東等外資企業紛紛倒閉，除了內地產業政策調整令成本上漲，人民幣升值加快令企業利潤大幅收窄，也是重要原因。根據內地媒體的調查，一名長三角的廠商去年年底接到一筆一百萬美元的訂單，以當時人民幣滙率七點三〇四四六作為報價，到了今年三月底的中間價已上升至七點〇一九，美元貶值，廠商在滙率損失達到二十八萬五千多元（人民幣．下同），以紡織品一般利潤率百分之五計，這筆訂單的應有利潤約為三十六點五萬元，經滙率因素「打折」，利潤所得最後不到八萬元，令廠商損失慘重。
隨着內地資本市場進一步開放，人民幣滙率是否應該沿用傳統的貿易和出口指標，正受到不少質疑，國內金融界認為，以資本市場的流動性來衡量滙價，是另一個可行的參考辦法，尤其近期境外資本流入的數量飆升，中國外儲持續保持高增長，資金進出影響人民幣滙率的作用正愈來愈大。因應新形勢，調節人民幣滙價的形成機制，看來是中國政府急不容緩的任務。
OLD 1: 2008-7-19
Dear Investors, please take some time to read today's old cho's column. Meaningful. I guess for our fund portfolio, the time to switch out more to parking fund to lock the profit has been arriving. We can switch some part of material and mining fund more (but not all) to parking fund first, only maintain not more than 8-10% in our portfolio. Besides, stock-wise, in case anyone of us holds certain material stocks, pls also start to divest part of it.
兩房變成植物人
曹仁超
7月16日，周三。恒指低開後回升，收市21223.5，升48.73；成交598億元。7月期指升150點，收21210點。
滬深三百指數跌3.76％，收2745.6。利好預期落空，市場又再進入漫長尋底過程。投資者除咗繼續耐心等待之外，可以做嘅嘢唔多。地產板塊跌幅超過6％，有接近十家地產股跌停，包括北辰、上實發展、華業地產等，金融、鋼鐵、有色及煤炭亦成為跌市主力。據上海交易所數據顯示，7月1日至8日嘅六個交易天內，機構投資者資金淨流出104億元人民幣。基金同散戶唔同，近日利用滬深A股反彈減持，理由係外圍股市甚差；反之，散戶仍信北京奧運可帶來沖喜。外資擬撤出中國股份
換言之，8月份如內地股市不升，擔心將引發散戶大舉拋售。JP摩根私人銀行（管理4000億美元）認為，依家喺美國發生嘅事冇可能唔响亞洲區出現。睇嚟外資正由中國股份身上流走。
英國6月份CPI可能升3.8％，係1992年以來最高（其中食物價格升幅超過10％，汽油價格較5月份上升5％），代表六十萬公務員可能發動四十八小時罷工行動去爭取加薪，並傳出英鎊將加息。
日本銀行估計，日本2008／09年度（3月結）GDP增長率只有1.2％，通脹率1.8％，日本人工資及企業純利仍走下坡。睇嚟日本2003年4月開始嘅溫和繁榮期又再結束。
格蛇唔認為美國經濟下半年會出現回升，信貸危機可能會拖到明年。標普首席經濟學家戴維．懷斯認為，最糟糕嘅時候仲未到臨！美國財政部寄出退稅支票後，消費者兌現呢D支票嘅速度較預期要快，呢D錢一用完後，衰退便來，估計最糟糕時候係明年第一季。
索羅斯認為，2008年係超級大泡沫破裂嘅日子，情況有如1930年，實際上人們剛剛開始感受到呢場危機對實際經濟所造成嘅影響，未來痛苦日子仲好長。房利美及房貸美事件唔係最後，而係開始咋，美國進入清還負債能力危機期（Solvency crisis），而非流動性危機（Liquidity crisis）。上述兩間公司短期內並唔缺乏資金，只係投資者質疑兩公司貸款人嘅未來還債能力。
因此，由聯儲局提供短期資金作用唔大，因為兩公司並唔需要，只有美國樓價止跌回升，才可大大提升貸款者未來還債能力。呢方面無論財長抑或聯儲局均無能為力（1990至2003年日本政府無法改變日本樓價方向，1997年8月至2003年4月本港特區政府亦改變不了香港樓價方向；未來美國政府得咩？）
《華爾街日報》引述美國聯儲局委員意見認為，貝南奇已江郎才盡，佢估計下半年美國經濟擴張速度略低於趨勢增長率，主因係房地產繼續不景氣、能源價格節節上升以及信貸狀況欠佳等。佢話今後兩年經濟增長率會逐漸加快腳步，但信徒已經唔多。
美國勞工部宣布，6月份生產商價格指數升9.2％，係1981年以來最大嘅年度漲幅。
投資者對美國整個金融體系缺乏信心，銀行股遭受十年來最大損失。繼加州IndyMac之後，National City股票交易一度被中止。Oppenheimer & Co.分析員Meredith Whitney過去曾正確預測花旗減派息，佢依家認為Wachovia Corp.前景暗淡，令該股股價急跌13％；估計今年每股虧損1.35美元，明年每股虧損35美仙。Wachovia今年內股價已下跌74％，周二再跌1.2美元，成8.64美元。冇阿媽生任由自生自滅
財長保爾森要求國會畀房利美及房貸美「絕對保證」及短期無上限貸款，但共和黨議員認為對納稅人負擔太大，睇嚟上述申請短期內不獲國會通過機會好大。Uncle Sam已決定收養房利美及房貸美，因為佢地係「GSE」（政府資助機構）。至於其他金融機構，由於冇阿媽生，任由自生自滅。美國證監會宣布唔准淨拋空房利美、房貸美及雷曼兄弟、高盛、美林或大摩等十九間金融機構嘅股份，若拋空必須先借貨，務求支持金融公司股價（美國政府已愈嚟愈唔尊重自由市場矣）。房利美响1938年、房貸美响1970年由國會製造出來，有阿媽生的確唔同D，不過救番又點？兩隻股份現已跌價80％，擔心已失去派息能力（房貸美去年派息15.5億美元、房利美24.8億美元，依家可能已變成植物人，因過去二十八年嚟嘅利率回落期已結束）。
2000年科網股泡沫破裂後，2002年10月股市才見底；2007年8月次按危機後，需時幾耐？次按危機估計最終會拖垮油價，依家似乎已開始。如無意外，油價好快會由146美元回落到100美元，引發原材料價格崩潰。2009年我地面對嘅壓力唔係通脹，而係「信貸崩潰」（credit crash）！美國油股ETF周二跌幅達到5.2％，成111.36美元。早喺油價下跌前，美國石油股已率先回落。唔好以為中東油佬好掂
唔好以為中東油佬好掂，唔信請睇睇沙地阿拉伯股市指數，早由2006年2月26日回落，去年出現反彈，今年又再跌過，並喺7月15日再跌穿今年3月低點，繼續尋底【圖】。願天下股民皆同聲一哭！
溝上唔溝落，有邊個諗過以每股30美仙吸納IndyMac，結果係全軍盡墨？1973至74年和記由每股43元跌至7元，我老曹開始溝落，7元、6元、5元……最後係1蚊，自己50萬元投資响半年內變成10萬元！好彩和記冇破產，不然你地今日一定冇曹仁超日記睇，亦冇人再聲嘶力歇叫人唔好「溝落」。响熊市中，只能動用30％資金去玩（唔好希望自己能跑贏大市！呢點連畢非德亦做唔到），記住保存70％資金（Keep your powder dry）！有智慧不如趁勢，「人」嘅力量永遠唔及「熊」，只有乖乖地度過嚴冬，留番D種子春天時播種用。如果你唔喺秋天收成、冬天藏糧，春天來到又點？
人民幣自2005年7月21日起升值，至今已漸漸抑制中國產品嘅出口能力，而增加咗入口產品嘅能力。如今製鞋、製衣、玩具加工、電子加工等低利潤行業已面對工廠外移（或內移）甚至倒閉，進入青黃不接期；高技術產品仍未發展起來，但依賴密集勞動嘅工業卻在加速淘汰，最惡劣日子相信係今年下半年或明年上半年，能夠捱過者可生存，否則便淘汰。
下半年中國汽油相信進入上調期（上一次係6月20日）。中國成品油由去年10月31日起至今只上調過一次，形成每加工一噸成品油要虧損1000元人民幣，加工及進口石油都出現嚴重虧損，引致大部分地方煉油廠停工或半停工。汽油短缺由廣東、廣西、雲南、浙江、上海……從南向北蔓延。今年6月20日上調成品油價後，由於國際油價進一步上升，令加工一噸成品油要虧損2000多元人民幣；加上地方煉油廠已停工（或半停工），變成大部分成品油由國營企業供應，到處都出現短缺。相信奧運過後，有很大需要大幅調整成品油價格。
糧價又點？舊年12月泰國大米每噸376美元，今年4月17日升至1000美元，引發埃及、喀麥隆、科特迪瓦、塞內加爾、布基那法索、埃塞俄比亞、印尼、馬達加斯加、菲律賓、海地等地區發生騷亂；海地總理愛德華因此下台。反而中國糧價十分穩定，除咗去年12月20日取消小麥、玉米等出口退稅，今年1月1日宣布上述產品出口關稅，以及今年1月19日宣布出口配給制外，內地糧價基本上穩定。理由係中國糧食自給率達95％，加上過去四年豐收，政府有能力阻力內地糧價上升，形成同國際糧價脫節；只係農夫面對化肥漲價，農產品價格唔漲嘅日子可維持幾耐？
日前報道有600萬美元先至可退休，呢個數字唔係我老曹計算出嚟，而係由《巴隆氏》呢份金融財經界權威計算所得，數字都幾嚇人（或令大部分中產階級心碎）。
1967年剛離開學校時，我老曹已想發達，目標係賺100萬元（當年百萬已係富翁）。1980年，我老曹已賺到100萬元，當年同森池兄遠足，同行者有位係森池兄口頭上叫「契爺」嘅公務員，佢1964年五十五歲已退休，退休時揸住幾十萬元，到1980年七十一歲仍身壯力健，但已唔夠錢使。佢教我地要有1000萬元才好退休。喺1980年，1000萬元已係唔少嘢；1994年森池兄賺到1億元才退休，今時今日仍然豐衣足食。每年失去5%購買力
自1971年美元唔再同黃金掛鈎後，美元購買力以每年5％速度失去。今天600萬美元嘅購買力，二十五年後只餘下166萬美元。除非你係理財專家，否則冇人能保證每年投資收益都係正回報。點樣每年皆跑贏失去嘅5％購買力？並唔容易。1997至2007年恒生指數每年平均只升2.5％，而過去十年樓價除豪宅外都係負回報。
何況人到最後三年嘅醫療支出，係佔咗一生人中嘅50％。今天養和醫院二等房（包括醫生費）一天開支大約1.5萬元；如住喺法國醫院，上述開支減半，即7500元一天。以兩夫婦計，最後三年醫療費用（如住私家醫院）大大話話至少500萬元。
退休並唔係一般人想像咁輕鬆。請睇吓嗰D喺1978年前退休嘅港人今天生活點樣？今天佢地嘅情況，三十年後將响閣下身上發生。請唔好忘記金錢購買力正以每年5％嘅速度減少。
今年5月五卡鑽石可以100萬美元售出，較一年前升值76.5％。粉紅色鑽石升幅達75％、湖水藍鑽石升幅超過100％。五年前十卡或以上完美鑽石每卡可售7萬美元，今年非20萬美元以上一卡不可，因為每年新發現五卡或以上完美鑽石少於二百粒，粉紅色或湖水藍者更少，好多時有錢亦未必買得到。三個月前一顆D無瑕二百四十三點九六卡鑽石以5000萬英鎊售出（買家係亞洲人，身份通常唔透露），打破1995年5月响日內瓦蘇富比拍賣嘅一顆一百點一卡梨形鑽石售價1650萬美元。睇嚟鑽石較股票及房地產更有投資價值（少於一卡者則冇投資價值）。
David
兩房變成植物人
曹仁超
7月16日，周三。恒指低開後回升，收市21223.5，升48.73；成交598億元。7月期指升150點，收21210點。
滬深三百指數跌3.76％，收2745.6。利好預期落空，市場又再進入漫長尋底過程。投資者除咗繼續耐心等待之外，可以做嘅嘢唔多。地產板塊跌幅超過6％，有接近十家地產股跌停，包括北辰、上實發展、華業地產等，金融、鋼鐵、有色及煤炭亦成為跌市主力。據上海交易所數據顯示，7月1日至8日嘅六個交易天內，機構投資者資金淨流出104億元人民幣。基金同散戶唔同，近日利用滬深A股反彈減持，理由係外圍股市甚差；反之，散戶仍信北京奧運可帶來沖喜。外資擬撤出中國股份
換言之，8月份如內地股市不升，擔心將引發散戶大舉拋售。JP摩根私人銀行（管理4000億美元）認為，依家喺美國發生嘅事冇可能唔响亞洲區出現。睇嚟外資正由中國股份身上流走。
英國6月份CPI可能升3.8％，係1992年以來最高（其中食物價格升幅超過10％，汽油價格較5月份上升5％），代表六十萬公務員可能發動四十八小時罷工行動去爭取加薪，並傳出英鎊將加息。
日本銀行估計，日本2008／09年度（3月結）GDP增長率只有1.2％，通脹率1.8％，日本人工資及企業純利仍走下坡。睇嚟日本2003年4月開始嘅溫和繁榮期又再結束。
格蛇唔認為美國經濟下半年會出現回升，信貸危機可能會拖到明年。標普首席經濟學家戴維．懷斯認為，最糟糕嘅時候仲未到臨！美國財政部寄出退稅支票後，消費者兌現呢D支票嘅速度較預期要快，呢D錢一用完後，衰退便來，估計最糟糕時候係明年第一季。
索羅斯認為，2008年係超級大泡沫破裂嘅日子，情況有如1930年，實際上人們剛剛開始感受到呢場危機對實際經濟所造成嘅影響，未來痛苦日子仲好長。房利美及房貸美事件唔係最後，而係開始咋，美國進入清還負債能力危機期（Solvency crisis），而非流動性危機（Liquidity crisis）。上述兩間公司短期內並唔缺乏資金，只係投資者質疑兩公司貸款人嘅未來還債能力。
因此，由聯儲局提供短期資金作用唔大，因為兩公司並唔需要，只有美國樓價止跌回升，才可大大提升貸款者未來還債能力。呢方面無論財長抑或聯儲局均無能為力（1990至2003年日本政府無法改變日本樓價方向，1997年8月至2003年4月本港特區政府亦改變不了香港樓價方向；未來美國政府得咩？）
《華爾街日報》引述美國聯儲局委員意見認為，貝南奇已江郎才盡，佢估計下半年美國經濟擴張速度略低於趨勢增長率，主因係房地產繼續不景氣、能源價格節節上升以及信貸狀況欠佳等。佢話今後兩年經濟增長率會逐漸加快腳步，但信徒已經唔多。
美國勞工部宣布，6月份生產商價格指數升9.2％，係1981年以來最大嘅年度漲幅。
投資者對美國整個金融體系缺乏信心，銀行股遭受十年來最大損失。繼加州IndyMac之後，National City股票交易一度被中止。Oppenheimer & Co.分析員Meredith Whitney過去曾正確預測花旗減派息，佢依家認為Wachovia Corp.前景暗淡，令該股股價急跌13％；估計今年每股虧損1.35美元，明年每股虧損35美仙。Wachovia今年內股價已下跌74％，周二再跌1.2美元，成8.64美元。冇阿媽生任由自生自滅
財長保爾森要求國會畀房利美及房貸美「絕對保證」及短期無上限貸款，但共和黨議員認為對納稅人負擔太大，睇嚟上述申請短期內不獲國會通過機會好大。Uncle Sam已決定收養房利美及房貸美，因為佢地係「GSE」（政府資助機構）。至於其他金融機構，由於冇阿媽生，任由自生自滅。美國證監會宣布唔准淨拋空房利美、房貸美及雷曼兄弟、高盛、美林或大摩等十九間金融機構嘅股份，若拋空必須先借貨，務求支持金融公司股價（美國政府已愈嚟愈唔尊重自由市場矣）。房利美响1938年、房貸美响1970年由國會製造出來，有阿媽生的確唔同D，不過救番又點？兩隻股份現已跌價80％，擔心已失去派息能力（房貸美去年派息15.5億美元、房利美24.8億美元，依家可能已變成植物人，因過去二十八年嚟嘅利率回落期已結束）。
2000年科網股泡沫破裂後，2002年10月股市才見底；2007年8月次按危機後，需時幾耐？次按危機估計最終會拖垮油價，依家似乎已開始。如無意外，油價好快會由146美元回落到100美元，引發原材料價格崩潰。2009年我地面對嘅壓力唔係通脹，而係「信貸崩潰」（credit crash）！美國油股ETF周二跌幅達到5.2％，成111.36美元。早喺油價下跌前，美國石油股已率先回落。唔好以為中東油佬好掂
唔好以為中東油佬好掂，唔信請睇睇沙地阿拉伯股市指數，早由2006年2月26日回落，去年出現反彈，今年又再跌過，並喺7月15日再跌穿今年3月低點，繼續尋底【圖】。願天下股民皆同聲一哭！
溝上唔溝落，有邊個諗過以每股30美仙吸納IndyMac，結果係全軍盡墨？1973至74年和記由每股43元跌至7元，我老曹開始溝落，7元、6元、5元……最後係1蚊，自己50萬元投資响半年內變成10萬元！好彩和記冇破產，不然你地今日一定冇曹仁超日記睇，亦冇人再聲嘶力歇叫人唔好「溝落」。响熊市中，只能動用30％資金去玩（唔好希望自己能跑贏大市！呢點連畢非德亦做唔到），記住保存70％資金（Keep your powder dry）！有智慧不如趁勢，「人」嘅力量永遠唔及「熊」，只有乖乖地度過嚴冬，留番D種子春天時播種用。如果你唔喺秋天收成、冬天藏糧，春天來到又點？
人民幣自2005年7月21日起升值，至今已漸漸抑制中國產品嘅出口能力，而增加咗入口產品嘅能力。如今製鞋、製衣、玩具加工、電子加工等低利潤行業已面對工廠外移（或內移）甚至倒閉，進入青黃不接期；高技術產品仍未發展起來，但依賴密集勞動嘅工業卻在加速淘汰，最惡劣日子相信係今年下半年或明年上半年，能夠捱過者可生存，否則便淘汰。
下半年中國汽油相信進入上調期（上一次係6月20日）。中國成品油由去年10月31日起至今只上調過一次，形成每加工一噸成品油要虧損1000元人民幣，加工及進口石油都出現嚴重虧損，引致大部分地方煉油廠停工或半停工。汽油短缺由廣東、廣西、雲南、浙江、上海……從南向北蔓延。今年6月20日上調成品油價後，由於國際油價進一步上升，令加工一噸成品油要虧損2000多元人民幣；加上地方煉油廠已停工（或半停工），變成大部分成品油由國營企業供應，到處都出現短缺。相信奧運過後，有很大需要大幅調整成品油價格。
糧價又點？舊年12月泰國大米每噸376美元，今年4月17日升至1000美元，引發埃及、喀麥隆、科特迪瓦、塞內加爾、布基那法索、埃塞俄比亞、印尼、馬達加斯加、菲律賓、海地等地區發生騷亂；海地總理愛德華因此下台。反而中國糧價十分穩定，除咗去年12月20日取消小麥、玉米等出口退稅，今年1月1日宣布上述產品出口關稅，以及今年1月19日宣布出口配給制外，內地糧價基本上穩定。理由係中國糧食自給率達95％，加上過去四年豐收，政府有能力阻力內地糧價上升，形成同國際糧價脫節；只係農夫面對化肥漲價，農產品價格唔漲嘅日子可維持幾耐？
日前報道有600萬美元先至可退休，呢個數字唔係我老曹計算出嚟，而係由《巴隆氏》呢份金融財經界權威計算所得，數字都幾嚇人（或令大部分中產階級心碎）。
1967年剛離開學校時，我老曹已想發達，目標係賺100萬元（當年百萬已係富翁）。1980年，我老曹已賺到100萬元，當年同森池兄遠足，同行者有位係森池兄口頭上叫「契爺」嘅公務員，佢1964年五十五歲已退休，退休時揸住幾十萬元，到1980年七十一歲仍身壯力健，但已唔夠錢使。佢教我地要有1000萬元才好退休。喺1980年，1000萬元已係唔少嘢；1994年森池兄賺到1億元才退休，今時今日仍然豐衣足食。每年失去5%購買力
自1971年美元唔再同黃金掛鈎後，美元購買力以每年5％速度失去。今天600萬美元嘅購買力，二十五年後只餘下166萬美元。除非你係理財專家，否則冇人能保證每年投資收益都係正回報。點樣每年皆跑贏失去嘅5％購買力？並唔容易。1997至2007年恒生指數每年平均只升2.5％，而過去十年樓價除豪宅外都係負回報。
何況人到最後三年嘅醫療支出，係佔咗一生人中嘅50％。今天養和醫院二等房（包括醫生費）一天開支大約1.5萬元；如住喺法國醫院，上述開支減半，即7500元一天。以兩夫婦計，最後三年醫療費用（如住私家醫院）大大話話至少500萬元。
退休並唔係一般人想像咁輕鬆。請睇吓嗰D喺1978年前退休嘅港人今天生活點樣？今天佢地嘅情況，三十年後將响閣下身上發生。請唔好忘記金錢購買力正以每年5％嘅速度減少。
今年5月五卡鑽石可以100萬美元售出，較一年前升值76.5％。粉紅色鑽石升幅達75％、湖水藍鑽石升幅超過100％。五年前十卡或以上完美鑽石每卡可售7萬美元，今年非20萬美元以上一卡不可，因為每年新發現五卡或以上完美鑽石少於二百粒，粉紅色或湖水藍者更少，好多時有錢亦未必買得到。三個月前一顆D無瑕二百四十三點九六卡鑽石以5000萬英鎊售出（買家係亞洲人，身份通常唔透露），打破1995年5月响日內瓦蘇富比拍賣嘅一顆一百點一卡梨形鑽石售價1650萬美元。睇嚟鑽石較股票及房地產更有投資價值（少於一卡者則冇投資價值）。
David
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