Monday, January 5, 2009
Jan 8 - Announcement about Consumer Credit
The next wave of concern will be the changes between debt-to-income ratio and consumer credits. While the debt-to-income ratio remains the same, the consumer credit contracts substantially these months. Combining with the risk premium of ARM: 540pts for 1 year and 559pts for 1 1/2 - 5 year despite the decrease of the FED target rate, the out-break of another credit crunch is coming closer. Integrating with the jobless claims announced on the same day, and the unemployment announced on Friday, the rebound may come close to an end, or at least will cease. In case the Gaza area caused another wave of shortage (pretended or true) of oil, then maybe even bond market will be affected. Even if big accounts will not take big actions on this week, data announced this week will be indicative.