Saturday, February 21, 2009

Things Not Right

VIX = 49.6, increases from something close to 40 at the earlier of this week.
CDS = 173 (in USA), 154 (in Europe), 187.75 (UK), also increasees from the beginning of this week.
Gold Futures, for april and june, all hit over 1000, with most call options betting on 1000 or above.
Bond yield rate of all treasuries drop.
Mortgage market risk premium remains high, a spread of 500-700 points.

All these point to the direction of another melt-down in USA market, despite the LIBOR and other loan rates are stable.

In China, the re-tightening of loan to avoid speculations is launched.

Now in Hong Kong, under the influence of both markets, cannot walk away. For the heavily local related business, the problems with USA and Europe may not hit that hard but the conquences must have influence. Prepare for the big thing.

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