Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Simulated Games

Time Span: Present - Q4
Tools: HSI Warrants
Types: Call + Put
Plan:
Now buy call, 1 strike at 20,000 (time to maturity 2 months), 1 strike at 22,000 (time to maturity 2 months), 1 strike at 25,000 (time to maturity 3-6 months). Sell the 1st one when return hits in the range 15-20% and the 2nd one 25-35%. For both stop loss when you lose 15-20%. For the 3rd one, sell when the "second-wave of rising" arrives. In between this period, no stop-loss unless you lose 40%.

By the time you sell the 1st one, use the money to buy a put, strike at 19000, target return only 10-15%, stop-loss also 10-15%, must choose the one pass the "first-wave of rising" but not yet arrive the "second-wave of rising".

By the time you sell the 2nd one, hold the cash.

By the time you sell the 3rd one, combine the cash of the 2nd one and 3rd one, buy a put, strike at 20% down the HSI at that time, effective gearing 2-3, time to maturity 3 months, before "second-wave of rising", stop-loss at 15%, target return as much as possible.

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