Monday, August 31, 2009

雜文數篇

...Day Trade非強項,個勢而言,這星期只拍賣3隻短債,由之前的情況睇,這星期很有可能是回收流動性的星期。尤其斑馬面對財赤如果不做點事也難解話。再加多一層:如果誇張點說,高盛對政府有影響力的話,說不定它想先讓該破產的銀行再死過,則也不排除屆時美國政府先旁觀至七七八八才出手打救,who knows?

...也要小心的是金會上卻又未必可以勇闖高峰,因為金價本身也受先前的流動性影響而上升。

...Mr. Rosenberg opinion is v much inline with me. Remember i have been stressing that bond mkt does not react as if a huge recovery is on the progress. Given that the Fed can even give more incentive to the buyer of the long term bond, any portfolio manager will buy both bonds and stocks to safe guard the asset on the one hand while risk part for the return. So, as long as the funds want to seek shelter for a while, it can handily change the asset allocation, just like what u have done so far. Mind that instead of gold surging, commodity may subject to a real surge as infra may move ahead soon.

...如果以基建股來說的確一早消化左;但係原材料本身的價格及其相關貨幣和衍生工具則一向處於動態之中。然後一旦原材料扯高以及因基建帶來的短暫穩定,自然有些股份可以被炒上。貨幣和金價自然亦隨之變化。

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